U.S. auctions, which drove the rally in April, are waning.
Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium (the difference between the price on Coinbase (COIN) and offshore exchanges that primarily serve US customers) turned negative this week for the first time since early April, according to data from CryptoQuant.
This indicator remained consistently positive from April 8 to April 22, the same period that saw Bitcoin rise from $66,000 to local highs near $78,000. Premiums peaked around April 22nd and have been rolling over since then.
Since Coinbase is widely used as a proxy for U.S. institutional investors and dollar-denominated flows, the persistent negative numbers mean U.S. investors consistently pay less than the rest of the world. They’re either selling more aggressively or they’re just not showing up.
On-chain data tells the same story from the other side.
Bitcoin’s seven-day realized loss total, which tracks the total dollar value of coins moving at a loss across the network, jumped to $5.97 billion on April 24 as Bitcoin traded near $78,000.
Realized losses are recognized only when the holder sells the coin for a lower price than the price at which it was originally purchased.
Nearly $6 billion worth of prints at $78,000 means sellers were seeking buyers at higher prices. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. said in a report that the group likely used April’s pullback as an exit point rather than a re-entry point, reaching between $80,000 and $95,000 by the end of 2025 or early 2026.
Two data sets show that US institutional investors are slowing their bids through Coinbase as holders ramp up sales activity. Bitcoin was recently trading around $76,000.
What traders will be watching from here is whether the realized loss metric continues to fall as the underwater supply plays out. This figure has already fallen from its peak on April 24 to $4.7 billion by April 28, suggesting the seller pool is thinning.
