Bitcoin investor and analyst Nick Carter has published an analysis concluding that three early warning mechanisms proposed to predict quantum attacks on Bitcoin are ineffective.
The mechanism that Carter describes in his book “In the context of Bitcoin, a quantum canary” is Signs warning you in advance Quantum computers are on the verge of being able to crack the codes that protect funds on networks.
Here are three methods (“quantum canaries”) proposed and discussed in the Bitcoin community to timely detect quantum computing risks that investors are questioning.
- crypto challenge ladder: Create a series of keys or addresses by increasing the keys gradually (for example, from 10 bits to 256 bits). The idea is that as increasingly difficult cases are resolved publicly, the community will gradually be alerted before the entire Bitcoin curve is broken.
- Canary fund or trap fund (canary fundEnglish): Create a rewarded Bitcoin address (bounty) can only be used by proving that you own a Cryptography-Related Quantum Computer (CRQC). Whoever uses these funds will likely publicly reveal that they already have the ability to attack Bitcoin.
- Satoshicoin as a warning sign (“Satoshi’s Shield”): approximately 1.7 million BTC in old addresses (mainly P2PK) attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto or early miners. The idea is that quantum attackers will use them first (because they are the most valuable and obvious), giving the rest of the network time to react and move to post-quantum signatures.
In an article shared on April 30, Nic Carter argued that none of these three methods provide reliable or timely warnings. Bitcoin should now start transitioning to post-quantum cryptography According to his vision, “Bitcoin will need to add post-quantum signatures to its chain by faith alone.”
According to Carter, why doesn’t the canary arrive on time?
Carter said the central problem stems from the limitations of classical computers. Analysts explain that these can crack instances of up to 117 bits of the encryption used by Bitcoin, so quantum results below that threshold can be questionable, and skeptics can always argue that the results were obtained with classical techniques disguised as quantum.
According to Carter, this is exactly what happened to a recent “Q Day Award” winner who claimed to have destroyed a 15-bit instance. However, Google researcher Craig Gidney later refuted the experiment. “We built the right circuit, we got the result we expected, we celebrated… but we got the right answer for the wrong reason.”
Therefore, the first quantum result that no one questions It will be more than 117 bits. And at that point, taking into account Shor scaling, a quantum computer that can decode 120 bits will be very close to being able to decode 256 bits.
According to Carter, paper Google says, “If quantum processors can overcome the error correction problem and solve medium-sized circuits, we will get closer to a processor that can empty a Bitcoin address.”
The other two canary methods have their own flaws, investors warn. Carter points out that the trap fund assumes that the original owner of the quantum computer wants to reveal his true identity.
If I had to guess, I’d imagine that the first owners of a quantum computer would keep it a secret for as long as possible, given the huge strategic value of geopolitical adversaries not knowing about their ability to decrypt their traffic.
Nick Carter, Bitcoin investor and analyst.
Regarding the Satoshicoin warning, Carter warns that an attacker could recover all private keys for these addresses. without sending a transactionsilently accumulates access and publishes them all at once when it deems convenient.
Carter’s conclusion is that Bitcoin needs to begin its transition to post-quantum cryptography without waiting for a readable signal. To support that, he quotes Scott Aaronson.
If quantum computers start breaking codes in the next few years, don’t come to this blog and say I didn’t warn you. This post is a warning to you. Start your transition to quantum-resistant cryptography.
Scott Aaronson, mathematician and quantum computing expert.
In contrast to Carter’s observations, experts such as Adam Back and analysts such as Samson Mo believe that Bitcoin’s quantum risks will materialize within 10 or 20 years, giving the network plenty of time to transition to post-quantum cryptography.
Carter and Bitcoin governance in the face of quantum threats
As reported by CriptoNoticias, Carter said in an interview that Bitcoin’s governance is “shockingly inadequate against threats with uncertain timelines and collective mobilization,” and that the network needs to: Focused leadership to coordinate the response. “We need a dictator in this day and age,” he said.
In the same interview, Carter predicted that Q-Day would arrive “sometime between 2030 and 2035,” which would take two to seven years once Bitcoin’s post-quantum transition begins. This means that if your estimation is correct, Bitcoin will have to start transitioning before 2028.
Finally, Carter also predicted that decisions about what to do with Satoshicoin could ultimately be forced by institutional actors external to the protocol. “My guess is that the top 10, 15, or 20 admins will sign a letter saying they will only honor the forks where Satoshi’s coins are burned.”
