Global equity funds attracted more than $15 billion in inflows in the week ending April 1, followed by $23.47 billion, $31.26 billion and finally $48.72 billion in the week ending April 22.
Global money market funds also recorded outflows of $173.24 billion in the week ending April 15, the largest single-week outflow since at least September 2018.
Taken together, these numbers, combined with $118 billion in global equity fund inflows and $173 billion in cash outflows over four weeks, generate a risk-on signal of approximately $292 billion.
Coinbase and Glassnode’s Q2 Institutional Outlook shows that BTC’s daily return correlation with the S&P 500 in Q4 2025 is 0.58, while its relationship with gold is negligible.
When capital flows towards risk, it flows towards the asset class which is how Bitcoin is currently behaving.
Sharper details come from a Coinbase survey of 91 global investors, 29 institutions and 62 non-institutions, conducted from March 16 to April 7.
Among institutional investor respondents, 75% believe Bitcoin is undervalued, and 61% of non-institutional crypto investors hold a similar view. Only 7% of institutions and 11% of non-institutional institutions think BTC is overvalued.
These numbers represent a market where buyers of some size still see upside. Capital that rotates into risk encounters assets that its most sophisticated holders still consider undervalued, assets whose markets have not yet been rewired toward euphoria.
On-chain images
The supply of BTC that has moved within the past three months fell by 37% in Q1, while the supply that has not moved in over a year increased by 1%.
Speculative holders who bought at high prices circulated their funds through drawdowns, while long-term holders accumulated.
The Puel multiple fell to 0.7 in the first quarter. This meant that miners’ revenues were approximately 30% below their one-year baseline, a zone that historically coincided with the accumulation period.
While long-term holder balances increased, exchange balances decreased, and stablecoin supply increased from $308 billion to $320 billion. This means that dry powder remained within the crypto market during the decline.
Options open interest increased 2.4% and perpetual futures open interest recovered approximately 8.6%, painting a picture of a market that has absorbed deleveraging and restructured at a steady pace.
| metric | read | Why is your BTC setup important? |
|---|---|---|
| Institutional respondents view BTC as undervalued | 75% | Large investors still expect room for upside from current levels |
| Non-institutional respondents view BTC as undervalued | 61% | Constructive perspectives extend beyond the organization |
| Institutional respondents view BTC as overvalued | 7% | There are few signs of institutional well-being. |
| Non-institutional respondents believe BTC is overvalued | 11% | Foaming still appears to be limited |
| survey sample | 91 global investors | Provides context about how broad a snapshot of sentiment is |
| Sample institution share | 29 respondents | Indicates that the facility’s results are based on defined subgroups |
| Non-institutional sharing of samples | 62 respondents | Balancing institutional investor views and broader crypto investor sentiment |
| Investigation site date | March 16th – April 7th, 2026 | Positioning the survey in preparation for Q2 |
| Correlation between S&P 500 and BTC (Q4 2025) | 0.58 | Supports the idea that BTC is still trading like a risky asset |
| BTC and gold correlation | can be ignored | Suggests BTC is not behaving like a defensive hedge in this regime |
| Q2 read-through | Undervalued + Risk Sensitive | Macro risk onflows could support BTC without the need for euphoria |
bull incident
If April’s equity rotation continues to expand into high-yield credit, private credit, and emerging market risks, Bitcoin will be in the path of that money.
“Risk appetite has increased markedly,” EPFR said, with capital inflows into high-yield bond funds for the first time since mid-February and private credit flows reaching an eight-week high.
In that scenario, institutional confidence in underpricing and cleaner on-chain positioning create a truly viable re-pricing path. Coinbase survey respondents are in an alarming position, meaning their holdings are undervalued due to an improving macro environment.
A 12%-20% upside from current levels for the remainder of Q2 could put BTC in the $87,500-$94,000 range, driven solely by sustained rotation by institutional investors.
The weaker dollar, already evident in last week’s intervention-driven move that pushed the dollar index down 0.8%, is a secondary tailwind.
Bitcoin tends to closely track global dollar liquidity, with softer financial conditions favoring marginal risk assets.
bear incident
Coinbase’s own official position in the second quarter remains neutral, with conditions that need to be confirmed before moving in a more constructive direction, such as a definitive end to the Middle East conflict, a retreat in oil prices, and easing of inflation, not yet achieved.
If oil prices continue to rise and the Fed continues to be held back by persistent inflation, Bitcoin’s equity correlation will turn from a tailwind to a headwind. If the macro desk reverts to a cash orientation like it did in early March, BTC will trade as a liquidity beta on the way down.
In that setting, macro-control overrides the belief in institutional undervaluation. Although survey respondents believe BTC is cheap, they may still be on the sidelines as geopolitical uncertainty dictates their positioning.
On-chain accumulated data will hold as constructive readings in the long term, but new macro shocks will overwhelm those readings in the short term.
An 8% to 15% drawdown from current levels, approximately $66,500 to $72,000, is consistent with the magnitude of the previous macro-driven BTC correction and would only require a return to the March defensive flow pattern.
The rest of the quarter will focus on whether April’s equity and credit rotation shows persistence or snaps into the next geopolitical headline, and whether Bitcoin and equities remain highly correlated or drift toward a more independent path as crypto-specific flows begin to dominate price movements.
The constructive case hinges on Bitcoin’s most informed holders being under-owned for a clean recovery while the broader market again assumes more risk.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin
