Mikhail Lukin, a Harvard professor and co-founder of the Harvard Quantum Initiative (HQI), estimates that fault-tolerant quantum computers could be available “at least in some form” by the end of the century.
“People originally thought that these kinds of fault-tolerant quantum computers would arrive toward the end of the next decade,” he told the Harvard Gazette on May 1. “I think there’s a pretty good chance they’ll be here before this is over.”
Until recently, the consensus in the field was that large-scale, fault-tolerant quantum computers were on the horizon. Towards the end of the next decade, i.e. between 2035 and 2040Lukin pointed out. Researchers estimate that this horizon is advancing by five to ten years, and that the arrival of these machines is before 2030.
The advancement that explains this change is fault tolerance. Quantum computers always make errors because qubits (the fundamental units of quantum information) are extremely sensitive to disturbances in the environment. Fault tolerance is the ability to: Detect and correct those errors without interrupting calculations.and building it at scale has been the main technical hurdle in this field. Lukin credits recent improvements in the lab with lowering that hurdle significantly.
Evelyn Hu, co-director of HQI, agrees with this diagnosis. “Where are we now compared to where we thought we would be in 2018?” In the same article, he said, “We are further ahead than anyone imagined.”
The emergence of startups from the HQI environment reflects this acceleration. QuEra, co-founded by Lukin, Already delivered second commercial quantum computer To the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology. Another ecosystem researcher, Mihail Bhaskar, co-founded LightsynQ, which was later acquired by IonQ, a leading company specializing in quantum computing.
Estimates that match other companies and threaten Bitcoin?
Lukin’s projection is consistent with other perspectives. As reported by CriptoNoticias, companies like Google, Cloudflare, and Grayscale. They have set a goal of 2029 to complete the post-quantum transitionpredicted in that year that quantum computers could compromise current cryptographic systems.
This convergence of signals is relevant for Bitcoin. The network uses an ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) digital signature system to protect user addresses, but a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could compromise that scheme.
If the time horizon is shortened to before 2030, the scope for completing an orderly transition to a post-quantum scheme will shrink. As covered by CriptoNoticias, proposals such as BIP-360 are moving in that direction at Bitcoin’s base layer, but the implementation date is unclear.
However, analysts and experts close to Bitcoin, such as Adam Back and Samson Mo, believe that quantum risk is within reach. At least 10 years away. Similarly, Bitcoin Core developer March argues that many of those promoting quantum urgency cannot withstand technical scrutiny.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
