Post-quantum cryptography company Project Eleven has identified stablecoins as the vector with the greatest system-wide impact with the advent of cryptographically relevant quantum computing (CRQC), according to a report on quantum threats to blockchain published by the company on May 6th.
The document points out the stablecoin governance structure as follows: Exponentially increases the scope of the ultimate attack compared to other assets digital.
Project Eleven distinguishes between the nature of Bitcoin’s risks and the nature of risks faced by the stablecoin market.
According to the group, in Bitcoin, quantum attacks compromise individual addresses, and the damage is limited to the balance of each exposed UTXO. On the other hand, with stablecoins, whoever acquires Access to smart contract management keys allows you to mint tokens without backingrewrite balances or completely replace contract logic, affecting the entire supply in circulation.
The company details three attack scenarios against the stablecoin market.
- The issuing authority’s commitment allows for unlimited minting of tokens without any backing.
- Smart contract changes to redirect reservations or change user balances.
- Control of the contract update mechanism with the ability to rewrite protocol logic.
Project Eleven points out that the damage is not limited to the attacked senders. The report claims that the scope of impact extends to all decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. What maintains stablecoin positions: liquidity pools, lending platforms, bridges cross chain and traditional financial institutions that already operate on these infrastructures.
Regulatory framework as an additional variable
The regulatory context exacerbates the scenario. The company points to the approval of the GENIUS Act, which establishes a federal framework for stablecoin payments in the United States. The integration of these currencies into traditional financial infrastructure has accelerated..
According to Project Eleven, this institutionalization process expands the attack surface. The greater the integration with the traditional financial system, the greater the contagion effect should a crypto breakout occur.
According to the report, USDT and USDC are concentrated in over 80% of the market, with monthly trading volume of On-chain By September 2025, it reached USD 1 trillion. For an organization, its concentration is Make both emitters high priority targets Towards the ultimate attacker with advanced quantum capabilities.
As for deadlines, Project Eleven estimates a base case for so-called Q-Day (the day cryptographic quantum computers become available) around 2033, but warns that more aggressive scenarios could bring it forward to 2030.
But he said the debate over the Q-Day deadline not closed. Industry voices, including Adam Back and Samson Moe, argue that quantum capabilities to break 256-bit encryption are more than a decade away.
However, in the case of stablecoins, Project Eleven claims: Discussions about deadlines are secondary.: The transition to post-quantum cryptography in active smart contracts is a time-consuming technical and coordination process that must begin before a threat becomes imminent.
The report adds structural factors that make the risks even more acute. Major stablecoins act as upgradable proxy contracts, managed by a hierarchy of privileged keys including administrators, owners, master issuers, and account lockers.
In the case of Project Eleven, these roles may be supported by multi-signature wallets, but all rely on ECDSA (Elliptic Curve) keys. If any of these keys signed the transaction and its public key is recoverable, Quantum attackers don’t need to find vulnerabilities in your code Contract content: It is sufficient to call the privileged functions of the protocol itself.
The company concludes that stablecoins intended to operate as long-term financial infrastructure require the adoption of cryptographic schemes that are resistant to quantum attacks. It’s no longer an arbitrary decision. We therefore urge issuers and developers to start migrating smart contracts as soon as possible to avoid systemic risks with unpredictable outcomes.
(Tag to translate) Quantum Computing
