Project Eleven, a research firm specializing in post-quantum cryptography as applied to the cryptocurrency ecosystem, has warned that the latest milestone in the development of cryptography-related quantum computers (CRQC) will be classified as a state secret.
According to a report on quantum threats to blockchain published by the company on May 6, 2026. The quantum industry is moving toward concealing cutting-edge attack technology plans. .
The organization quantifies the quantum risks of Bitcoin and stablecoins in the same document, adding variables to the post-quantum discussion that it believes are critical to industry planning. Deliberate state opacity about the actual status of quantum development.
Unlike previous stages of technology development, where milestones were published in academic journals or presented at conferences, the company argues that the eventual progress towards operationalization of the CRQC will follow the logic of national intelligence rather than the dissemination of open science.
Project Eleven describes the pattern of quantum progress as a trajectory of “doing nothing, then everything at once.” That is, years of slow progress followed by a sudden convergence of improvements in physical fidelity, error correction, and algorithmic efficiency.
In that sense, he quotes physicist Hartmut Neben to explain this dynamic. In our subjective experience of quantum progress, nothing seems to happen until the world suddenly changes..
Opacity as a systemic risk factor
Project Eleven looks at patterns of progress combined with the state’s most recent progress rankings.which eliminates the possibility of the private sector anticipating Q-days based on public signals..
For the company, a combination of improvements, including increased physical fidelity, more efficient error-correcting codes, and algorithmic innovations, could close the gap in months rather than years, barring early warning from the private and academic sectors.
This possibility of intentional misinformation has come to the fore during the ongoing debate over the Q-Day deadline.
As documented by CriptoNoticias, figures such as Adam Back and Samson Moe claim that quantum capabilities to break 256-bit encryption are more than a decade away. However, Project Eleven has no objection to its leeway. The focus of the warning is not when Q-Day will arrive. However, state opacity makes any private sector estimates structurally incomplete..
The company added that the actors with the strongest incentives to develop CRQC – states with advanced intelligence capabilities – also have the greatest incentive not to disclose their progress. In this scenario, Project Eleven claims to be preserving Q-Day. It could happen without the industry receiving any signals. Before justifying acceleration of migration plans.
Project Eleven concludes that waiting for public warning signals to initiate a post-quantum transition is an unviable strategy. Because if the latest advances are kept secret, the warnings will never arrive.
(Tag translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
