Bitcoin (BTC) issued an “early bullish” signal in May 2026 for the first time since March 2023, as recorded by the “Bull-Bear Cycle” indicator on the CryptoQuant platform. This technical move suggests that the digital currency is finally breaking out of bearish territory and consolidating a new bullish trend.
After a long period of decline since the end of 2025, the color of the analysis tool has changed to green. This change is Coin will no longer behave like a severe bear market assetMeanwhile, Bitcoin price has managed to recover the $80,000 barrier.
The bull-bear cycle indicator measures the health of a market by comparing its current value to its historical average. Breaking out of bearish territory and into an early bullish zone suggests the following: The worst phase of the Bitcoin correction is already behind us and the structure is recovering..
Although we are seeing improvements, the situation in this early cycle is not as clear as before due to various technical variables. That’s why Spanish analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente warns that “this signal should not be interpreted blindly.”
As seen in the graph, this change was observed in 2019 and again at the beginning of 2023. In both cases, these signals appeared after a deep bearish phase and preceded a stronger bullish trend. Nevertheless, The current situation presents nuances that force investors to remain cautious..
The chart shows a “denial” episode in 2022, with the indicator briefly turning green. However, prices could not hold and fell. Being green does not guarantee an increase if macroeconomic conditions and demand are not supportive.. Looking at past developments, important exceptions emerge. At that time, the indicator also moved into the positive zone, but the price of Bitcoin invalidated immediately after that, disappointing investors.
“That is why the current signal of May 2026 is so important,” Moreno de Vicente explained. The analyst emphasizes that the market is at an inflection point and the current upward slope is less vertical than that seen in 2019 or 2023.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes maintains a different vision of the general outlook for the market, as reported by CriptoNoticias. The analyst asserts that the Bitcoin bull market has “regained momentum after a period of geopolitical and economic uncertainty.” In his view, the current global liquidity situation makes it a “foregone conclusion” that the company will recover $126,000 in the short term.
Despite Hayes’ optimism, Moreno de Vicente urges caution, citing the movement of the 30-day moving average. This average is used to smooth out price fluctuations and detect real trends, but it shows an improvement that analysts consider insufficient. “Some other market indicators are already showing signs of depletion,” the expert added. This makes the confirmation of this cycle unclear.
The market is currently torn between two historical paths. If Bitcoin price mimics 2019’s movements, Bitcoin will be headed for a new bullish cycle. On the other hand, if the 2022 pattern repeats, it will only be a temporary rally.
“In my opinion, the odds are slightly tilted towards this being the possibility of a localized high rather than the start of a new bull market,” the expert concluded. For this prediction to change, we need to see the asset continue its strong rally and move with solid demand.
