Digital asset investment firm Grayscale warned on May 14, 2026 that a prolonged high interest rate scenario in the United States could put pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies, while encouraging tokenization of traditional financial assets and increasing revenues for issuers of stablecoins like USDC.
In a report prepared by Zach Pandle, the company said: US inflation accelerates again to nearly 4% annuallymainly due to rising energy and gasoline prices. According to the analysis, this situation will limit the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates in the short term.
Similarly, Grayscale believes that new Fed President Kevin Warsh will maintain high interest rate monetary policy for a long time. In fact, the market currently does not expect a rate cut to occur until September 2027.
The report also highlights that underlying inflation measures remain above the Fed’s target. The core CPI index is 2.7%, while the core PCE, the US central bank’s recommended measure, is around 3.3%.
For Grayscale, this environment creates “headwinds” for Bitcoin. The company explains that, like gold, it is a currency created by Satoshi Nakamoto. It is an asset that does not generate income.. Therefore, as real interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin increases relative to interest-earning dollar-denominated instruments.
nevertheless, The company maintains a long-term positive view on Bitcoin. This is due to regulatory factors and advances in legislative initiatives such as the recently approved US Clarity Act, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Another effect noted by grayscale is: Accelerating the tokenization of fixed income assets. This report compares the returns of decentralized finance to traditional financial products and shows that many tokenized assets Offer more attractive returns.
As an example, Aave said its USDC loans generate returns of nearly 3.6%, while short-term corporate bonds reach around 4.5%. According to the company, this difference could lead investors and issuers to take the following actions: Bringing more traditional assets to cryptocurrency networks.
The report also shows that stablecoin issuers such as Circle They will directly benefit from a prolonged high interest rate scenario. Although these companies maintain reserves in interest-bearing financial products, the Genius Act prohibits them from transferring those profits directly to users.
Grayscale estimates that every 25 basis point increase in short-term interest rates could increase Circle’s revenue by approximately $190 million annually, as shown in the chart below.
It is worth emphasizing that Not everyone in the industry shares Grayscale’s vision On the long-term impact of high interest rates on Bitcoin. Some industry leaders believe greater adoption by institutional investors and corporations will ultimately weigh on prices more than the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Strategy CEO Michael Saylor has repeatedly asserted that Bitcoin will continue to rise over the long term due to the participation of corporations, ETFs, and institutional investors, even in a complex macroeconomic environment.
Anthony Pompliano maintains a similar position, stating in January 2026: Markets will exaggerate the impact of inflation and the Fed’s decision regarding Bitcoin. In a recent interview, Pompliano argued that factors such as Bitcoin’s institutionalization, integration with traditional finance, and structural demand are more important in asset movements than short-term inflation cycles.
Finally, this analysis reflects the changing narrative within the cryptocurrency market. Rather than just focusing on Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation. The sector is starting to prioritize performance productsstablecoins, tokenized real world assets (RWA).
If interest rates remain high until 2027, as the market currently predicts, segments related to tokenized bonds and stablecoins could increase their share of institutional capital. Bitcoin will become more dependent on regulatory factors and global liquidity to sustain that demand.
