price of This morning, May 17, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $78,000.this raises doubts about the continuity of the upward trend that the digital currency has seen since the beginning of April.
The following graph shows the evolution of Bitcoin’s price over the past 7 days.
The recent bear market was triggered by Diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran have not made any progress. Fortune reported yesterday that “Iran has vowed to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz once the conflict with the United States and Israel ends, but the two countries have not reached the stage of resolving their differences or finding a way to do so.”
Recall that, as CriptoNoticias explained, the Strait of Hormuz is an important seaway for the oil industry around the world. One-fifth of oil production passes through here.
The fact that the Strait of Hormuz has been partially closed since February 28th has caused an increase in oil prices and, as a result, higher inflation around the world (which reduces the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates).
In the week that just ended, US President Donald Trump has returned from a two-day summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, an ally of Iran.where both sides agreed that the Strait of Hormuz should be opened, but no apparent progress was made toward that goal.
What on-chain data shows about the price of Bitcoin
The drop in Bitcoin price to $78,000 puts Bitcoin near important short-term support. On-chain data analyzed by Glassnode shows that the realized price by buyer age in the past 30 days is $76,900. Below this threshold, recent holders will suffer a direct loss.increasing the potential risk of panic selling.
Market analysts such as Michael van de Poppe noted that the 21-period moving average is acting as fundamental support to maintain a continued bullish forecast towards $90,000. But diplomatic paralysis interrupted this trend and temporarily invalidated the most optimistic stock price targets.
Glassnode detailed that new capital is insufficient despite positive flows for Bitcoin spot exchange traded funds (ETFs) and positive volume delta for Coinbase. The 30-day net change in realized capital balances was recorded at USD 2.8 billion each month, compared to USD 10 billion in the previous bull cycle. Technical diagnosis reflects market uncertainty.
The macroeconomic scenario makes it difficult for Bitcoin to recover in the medium term. High U.S. inflation makes it less likely that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in the near term, keeping bond yields elevated.
The focus shifts to Monday, May 18, when Kevin Warsh will make his first public statement as president of the Federal Reserve.
Investors are waiting for monetary policy to be defined. The financial institution’s commander’s first comments could determine whether Bitcoin breaks through current support or begins a new recovery.
