The note, written by analyst Lance Vitanza and associate Jonathan Navarrete, maintained a buy rating on the stock.
The $5 target increase comes from an upward revision to TD Cowen’s 2026 target. $BTC yield and $BTC Expected dollar gains after financing activities since the last earnings release have exceeded previous models.
Most of Strategy’s financing in the second quarter came from preferred stock issuances, with about $1.95 billion raised for minimal common stock issuances. According to TD Cowen, almost all of the proceeds go directly to buying Bitcoin.
As a result, Strategy has already acquired more Bitcoin ($BTC) midway through the second quarter than TD Cowen modeled the entire quarter.
The company currently anticipates approximately 100,000 people. $BTC Purchase in the second quarter and increase throughout the year $BTC Expected yield is 19.8% from 18.2% for the full year $BTC Dollar gains are expected to be between $13.89 billion and $15.16 billion.
Fully diluted Bitcoin per 1,000 shares reached 2.21x as of May 17th, up from 1.95x at the end of 2025. TD Cowen said this trajectory is a core validation of Strategy’s funding model, with Bitcoin holdings continuing to outpace equity issuance even with increased dilution.
Organizing the balance sheet
A second driver of the target increase was Strategy’s repurchase of approximately $1.5 billion in out-of-the-money convertible notes at a discount of approximately 8% from par.
TD Cowen argued that the transaction would reduce fully diluted equity exposure, while improving credit quality and reducing future refinancing risk. The company called this an important signal of financial flexibility.
Strategy currently holds 843,738 $BTC — 4% or more of the supply limit of 24,869 Bitcoins — After acquiring 24,869 Bitcoins $BTC The roughly $2.01 billion from May 11 to May 17 is the largest single-week purchase this year since 34,164. $BTC As The Block reported on Monday, the purchase is expected to take place in April.
TD Cowen’s $400 price target applies 3x by 2026 $BTC Dollar earnings were $15.16 billion, plus the expected end-of-year Bitcoin holdings of $132.9 billion, less debt of $3.5 billion and preferred stock debt of $15.5 billion, resulting in approximately $400 per fully diluted share.
MSTR closed at $166.63 on Monday, down about 63% from its 52-week high of $455.90, and TD Cowen’s target suggests an upside of more than 140% from current levels.
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