In a wide-ranging analytical article published today, May 21, developer and cypherpunk Jameson Ropp said that the advent of quantum computers with the ability to compromise the Bitcoin network will produce results that go beyond temporary market fluctuations.
The report by the Casa co-founders is in response to the criticism received after the presentation of the Bitcoin 361 Improvement Proposal (BIP-361), which was officially incorporated into the official Bitcoin repository on April 14 under the scheme of technical contingency planning, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Ropp disputed the position of those who assume that a quantum attacker is simply an attacker. The published coins will be liquidated in one event.points out, “Unfortunately, it’s not that simple.”
Developers believe that under an optimistic scenario in which active users migrate to a post-quantum scheme, some users will 2,600,000 coins (13% of the total Bitcoin supply, worth over $200,000,000 USD) will be permanently inactive or lostbecomes the main target of attackers.
Most of its value is concentrated in just 35,000 public keys corresponding to old addresses in the form of Payment to Public Key (P2PK) that have been inactive for about 15 years. According to the data presented by Ropp, we decipher them Depending on the speed of the quantum system, it can take anywhere from 24 days to 96 yearsdetermine whether an attack can be carried out before the ecosystem can react.
Additionally, Jameson Ropp argued that 6.9 million BTC (equivalent to 34.6% of the total existing supply) have public keys made public, making them theoretically vulnerable to cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) that may someday be built.
Quantum attacker’s worst strategy: sell fast
According to Ropp’s analysis, if a quantum attacker were to obtain the unmigrated 2.6 million BTC, they would immediately try to sell the amount in bulk. Lack of liquidity can result in 95% loss of value. Because of this, the developers warned that a rational quantum entity would choose a more sophisticated strategy.
Ropp continued that the most sustainable strategy would be a phased distribution strategy. With 2 million BTC in their possession, an attacker can sustain a selling pressure of 4,000 BTC every week for a full 10 years. Artificially suppressing prices without depleting reserves.
Menpool and mining: dual fronts of quantum attacks
According to Ropp, as technology advances, real technological dangers to networks will materialize. Reduces the time required to decrypt private keys to less than 10 minutes (Threshold estimated by Google Quantum AI researchers as a reference for evaluating the cryptographic relevance of quantum systems). The developers warned that crossing this barrier could disable short-term defenses and allow valid transactions to be intercepted in the memory pool before being confirmed.
Finally, according to Ropp’s essay, a quantum attacker is controlling these transactions. “In flight” (We’re still waiting for confirmation) Deliberately injecting unusually high fees could disrupt the economic incentives for mining. This dynamic, known as “Fee Sniping” Or commission hunting will make mining pools even more difficult to use. It is more profitable to contest and rearrange the block Instead of honestly extending the chain, it has already been confirmed.
According to developers’ calculations, a reward of 100 BTC is enough to motivate miners with just 10% of the world’s hashrate to attempt these reorganizations, but the risk of fragmentation could be further exacerbated by the current centralization of infrastructure, with more than 30% of the world’s computing power operating under block templates controlled by AntPool and its partners, Lopp said. Significantly reduce the number of actors needed to break an agreement.
Thus, while the main controversy regarding quantum and Bitcoin revolves around the digital signatures that protect funds, Ropp, the author of the post-quantum BIP-361 proposal, presented various scenarios that, in his view, magnify the potential risk of attacks using quantum computers against other Bitcoin structures.
(Tag Translation) Bitcoin (BTC)
