Bitcoin price recovery story is under pressure. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has fallen nearly $5,000 from its recent high of $82,000, to around $76,900 as of this morning. The four-day losing streak is driven by macro headwinds, accelerating institutional exodus, and a strong convergence of on-chain indicators revealing a recovery without capital confidence like in previous bull cycles.
Bitcoin prices opened around $77,500 on Monday, but fell further throughout the session. Since last Friday, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen by more than $100 billion, to about $2.65 trillion.
The liquidation became difficult. According to the report, total crypto liquidations in 24 hours on Monday amounted to nearly $657 million, of which $584 million (approximately 89%) was from long positions. glass node data and Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.
In addition to this, the US Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows of $648.6 million on Monday alone, the largest single-day net outflow since January 29th. BlackRock’s IBIT led the way with $448.3 million in outflows, followed by Ark & 21 Shares’ ARKB with $109.6 million and Fidelity’s FBTC with $63.4 million.
Combined with last week’s $1 billion in net outflows (which ended a six-week streak of positive results), total outflows since May 16th are now just under $1 billion.
Last Thursday, Bitcoin prices were hovering around $82,000, but have since fallen more than 5% to current levels.
Bitcoin price analysis
Overall, the recent rebound in Bitcoin prices has analysts cautioning that the rally still lacks the capital support seen during the strong phases of previous bull cycles.
As market sentiment moves from deep fear to deep uncertainty, the validity of the current recovery hinges on objective measures of net capital inflows. The realized cap 30-day net position change, which quantifies the monthly change in on-chain capital, serves as a key barometer of this structural support.
Following the recent rally to $82,000, this indicator reached a positive $2.8 billion per month and is the basis for recent constructive momentum.
“The current $2.8 billion figure remains well below this historic benchmark and represents a significant shortfall in aggressive capital commitments. This target remains high as Iran has warned it will respond decisively to any attack, while Donald Trump has said planned military action has been delayed amid ongoing negotiations encouraged by Gulf states.”
Meanwhile, conflicts continue to fuel instability in the region, from Israeli military and Hezbollah attacks in Lebanon to a worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza, raising global concerns about a potential food crisis if Iran disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
This post comes as Bitcoin price drops below $77,000 as ETF Exodus crosses $1 billion. Originally published in Bitcoin Magazine and written by Micah Zimmerman.
