Ethereum is trading at $210,000, and this chart tells us that three months of cautious optimism are no longer over. The ascending channel that has provided the structural backbone for any bullish thesis since February’s bottom is breaking down to the downside.
Moreover, the US institutional auction, which supported the economic recovery in March and April, has quietly retreated to its most negative reading since the capitulation lows. therefore, $ETH It looks like they’re not backing down. It’s breaking down.
Ethereum Price Analysis: Daily Chart
The upward daily channel from February lows has failed. The asset has fallen below the lower bound for the first time since the recovery began, hovering around $220,000, and the 100-day moving average, which remains near it, has been lost on a daily close basis. The RSI also fell below 40. This is the weakest daily value since the February capitulation, and there is still no sign of a lower bound of momentum forming.
The $1.8,000 demand zone is currently the main downside criterion and was held as an absolute downside during the February selloff. Above, the 100-day moving average lost in the $2.2,000 zone is acting as an immediate resistance. A return to the $2.2,000 area on a continuous daily close is the minimum requirement to suggest that this breakdown is a sham rather than a true structural change.
$ETH/USDT 4 hour chart
On the 4-hour timeframe, the inner symmetrical triangle has completely resolved to the downside, bringing with it the support zone at $2.2,000, a level held twice in the past. The price is currently located directly in the lower zone of $205,000 to $210,000, almost exactly matching the lower limit of the daily ascending channel.
The 4-hour RSI has rebounded slightly from the oversold lows reached during the recent sell-off and has recovered to the 40s. Until proven otherwise, this should be viewed as a dead cat bounce.
The current $2,000-$2,1,000 area is the last meaningful support before $1,8,000. A 4-hour close below this area removes the last technical argument for an ascending channel structure and opens a direct path to the $1.8,000 demand zone below.
On the other hand, sustained consolidation and recovery above $2.2,000 would be the first sign that the breakdown is being absorbed. But given the momentum of this movement, that recovery will need to happen quickly.
sentiment analysis
The Coinbase Premium Index fell to -0.09, its deepest negative reading since its February lows and a sharp reversal from the slightly positive territory that characterized the recovery in March and April. US buyers returned during the recovery (+0.02 to +0.08), pulled back at the $2.4 million resistance (premium went to zero in early May), and are now pulling back aggressively (-0.09) as the breakdown accelerates.
At -0.09, it is still below the -0.20 extreme seen at February’s lows, meaning there is room for more selling by US institutional investors if prices continue to fall. That confirms that the group of buyers who have provided the demand floor throughout the economic recovery is not stepping in to protect current levels. Absent or sold out.
Unless the Coinbase premium returns to sustained positive territory, any bounce off the $205,000-210,000 support is likely to be sold rather than built on, and the structural requirement for a true recovery is a return of $2.2,000 in positive Coinbase premium. Unless this happens, bullish claims have no credibility.
