Nearly 40% of all Bitcoin in circulation was purchased at a higher price than it is currently trading at, causing many holders to lose money.
The figures, cited by analyst Darkfost, show tensions rising across the market as big players pull back on purchases and demand shows little sign of recovering.
Slow shutdown of the biggest players
According to CryptoQuant, annual balance growth for whale-sized accounts (accounts holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC) has turned negative.
Month-on-month growth across that group has been essentially flat since February. The on-chain analytics firm says this pattern mirrors what happened during the 2022 bear market, when prices plummeted over several months.
Source: CryptoQuant
Slightly smaller but still significant holders, known as dolphins, hold between 100 and 1,000 BTC and include exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury accounts.
Their balances are still growing each year, but the pace has fallen sharply, with monthly growth now near zero and figures hitting lower highs since September 2025.
CryptoQuant says these two groups together form the backbone of structural demand in the Bitcoin market, making a slowdown difficult to ignore.
Long-term holders pile up, but no buyers.
One figure is incredibly optimistic. Long-term holder supply increased to a record 15.8 million BTC. On the surface, it sounds like a belief. However, CryptoQuant interprets this differently. In other words, it’s a sign that existing holders are sitting tight and new buyers are staying away, leaving the market without the new demand needed to drive prices up.
Tim Sun, a researcher at HashKey Group, says the share of supply with unrealized losses has sometimes approached 50%. This is a level not seen since the recession began in 2022.
He sets the absolute floor range at $40,000 to $45,000, but believes $55,000 to $60,000 is a more realistic floor if the situation between the U.S. and Iran does not worsen and the Fed holds off on raising interest rates.
BTC continues to trade within the distribution cluster between $66,000 and $80,000, with buyers and sellers still fighting for control.
This remains a difficult environment for investors to navigate, with euphoria emerging every time BTC approaches the top. pic.twitter.com/8Zr96tDiJ0
— Darkpost (@Darkfost_Coc) May 28, 2026
What you really need for recovery
Sun has made it clear that a true turnaround will depend on more than price action. He said a clear transition to loose monetary policy and easier financial conditions must occur first.
Crypto analyst Darkfost described the current market as a difficult range to trade, with excitement rising whenever Bitcoin approaches its upper limit and pessimism quickly returning whenever it falls. At a price of around $73,510, the data paints a picture of a market still looking for a bottom.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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