According to Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of Into the Cryptoverse, Bitcoin is still following its historic four-year cycle.
The analyst was also unfazed by the recent price recovery that saw Bitcoin prices regain a multi-month high of $82,800. Recently ×postargued Cowen. $BTC He cites several indicators to back up his claim, still following a long-standing cyclical pattern.
Important points
- According to Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of Into the Cryptoverse, Bitcoin is still following its historic four-year cycle.
- He claimed: $BTC If the peak followed this trend, why is it different at the bottom?
- The countertrend rise to $82,800 peaked at the 200-day SMA in early May, but he emphasized that this pattern is recurring.
- Cowen predicted in an earlier analysis that the next leg could start this month and extend into June.
Bitcoin has not reached its bottom price
Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin ($BTC) It topped out precisely in line with the historical cycle. The $126,200 peak in October 2025 fell within one of the cycle periods measured from low to high.
He claimed: $BTC If the peak followed this trend, why is the bottom different? Past bear markets ended in midyear recession months, as we saw in November 2022 and December 2018. Citing this, the analyst maintained his previous year-end forecast, arguing that the crypto leader has not hit the bottom yet.
Another metric that he believes tracks previous behavior is the return on investment (ROI) graph of Bitcoin market cycle peaks and Bitcoin market cycle troughs. For the uninitiated, the former measures the multiple from the previous bull market peak to the bear market low. The latter, on the other hand, measures the multiplier between the bear market low and the next bull market peak.
The lowest ROI roughly follows the previous cycle, although the highest value of the multiplier has not been reached due to the following reasons: $BTCThe profits are modest. Mr. Cowen further emphasized that: $BTC The ROI from the peak is better preserved than previous cycles and still shows similar behavior.
Recent Bitcoin Rise Faces Similar Obstacles
Interestingly, the analyst sees the recent price recovery as confirmation of his theory. A countertrend rise to $82,800 200-day SMA In early May, he emphasized that this pattern was recurring. The attached chart shows that similar rejections also occurred in 2018 and 2022, before the last legdown.
He also pointed out that some countertrends have lasted longer than others over the years. Some were played for over 20 weeks, longer than the current 16 weeks. This refuted claims that recent consolidation has been prolonged and therefore asking prices have hit rock bottom.
Cowen cited this “ample evidence” to argue that the four-year cycle remains intact. On the timeline, he expects Bitcoin to remain bearish until the second half of this year, similar to past cycles.
When will the next Bitcoin decline begin?
in Previous analysisMr Cowen predicted the next legdown would begin this month and could extend into June. He predicts that the next bearish phase will see Bitcoin drop below its February 6th low of $60,000 and further decline in price. Notably, several market analysts are calling that level the bottom of the cycle, contrary to Cowen’s view.
Another analyst, Sycoderic, shares a different view. He believes that rather than Bitcoin taking another step down, June meeting After retesting BOS, it was over $90,000.
