The four-month period of calm in the cryptocurrency market is likely to come to an end. At least that’s what CryptoQuant’s popular on-chain analyst Martun warned investors about Bitcoin’s inevitable and sudden breakout from its current trading range.
According to his calculations, the amplitude of the movement next week or immediately after will reach 10% to 20%.
According to analysts, the reason behind the upcoming big move is the record volatility compression on the Bitcoin price chart. Major cryptocurrencies have remained within narrow ranges for more than 114 consecutive days since February 2026, while volatility indicators are nearing the bottom, hitting multi-month lows around 0.90%.
Martun said he shouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin moves 10-20% next week or the week after.
Liquidity drought hits record Bitcoin holdings
The peculiarity of this moment at the end of May is also the phenomenon of the order book becoming “empty.” Long-term investors are keeping their coins in non-custodial wallets, even as trading volumes on major spot exchanges have fallen to the lowest levels in the region. The supply of Bitcoin available for purchase on exchanges has been depleted.
Under such severe liquidity shortages, the market does not need billions of dollars in inflows for strong price movements. That means local impulses, whether it’s the Fed Beige Book or a takeover announcement from Thaler, can be triggered quickly.
- Bullish Scenario: If the price consolidates above the channel upper limit of $78,200, stop orders from short sellers will be activated. This instantly sends Bitcoin into the $81,500 to $88,000 region.
- Bearish Scenario: If sellers break out of the local support near $72,000, a chain of forced liquidations of overmargined longs will begin. This will cause the price to fall rapidly towards the $65,000 to $58,800 level.
The direction of the first strong impulse will determine the long-term trend for the entire summer of 2026, so market participants should prepare for the end of a prolonged sideways move.
