Bitcoin ($BTC) has rebounded from a key on-chain support zone, with the $78,000 level once again in focus for the bulls.
Important points:
- $BTC It is aiming for a rebound to the realized price of $78,200. $BTC It is kept for 3 to 6 months.
- If Bitcoin continues to move above this cost benchmark, it could be on track to surpass $100,000 by the end of the year.
$BTCshort-term holders defend $71,400 on a cost basis
Bitcoin rallied about 2.5% over the weekend, reaching $74,000 on Sunday, before beginning its recovery near $72,500.
Local low prices are close to realized prices $BTC Retained for 3-6 months (orange). A cohort often used to measure investor confidence over the medium term.
$BTC Realized price based on building age and price. Source: Glassnode
I noticed
The group’s cost basis is near $71,400, according to Glassnode data, which analyst Marcus Corvinas described as Bitcoin’s “strongest short-term support.”
“This group remains profitable, creating strong incentives to defend standards,” Corvinas said in a post on Sunday.
Analysts highlighted $78,200 as Bitcoin’s next potential upside target, as that level is in line with Bitcoin’s realized price. $BTC Retains for 3-6 months (yellow color). Bulls lost ground during the October 2025 market crash.
What will happen after Bitcoin crosses 3-6 million in cost basis?
Historically, since 2017, Bitcoin has rebounded above the 3-6 month holding cost threshold (yellow) before stronger returns over longer time frames.
After a similar breakout, $BTC Over the next 30 days, it increased by an average of 2.3%, after 90 days it increased by 21.9%, and after 180 days it increased by 36.6%.
$BTCA cohort of 3 million to 6 million people compared price to price. Source: Glassnode
With Bitcoin’s current levels near $74,000, this would imply an upside target of around $75,700 in one month, $90,200 in three months, and $101,100 in six months.
Related: Bitcoin doesn’t need a new story to get $100,000 back: Analyst
The signal is now more reliable over longer time frames. While Bitcoin delivered a positive return only 54.2% of the time after one month, that hit rate rose to 66.7% after three months and 79.2% after six months.
Bitcoin bear market could still derail upside sentiment
Bitcoin’s rally also occurs near the lower bound of the bear flag, and the technical outlook remains cautious.
This pattern developed after Bitcoin plummeted from its 2026 high of around $98,000, with the price currently stabilizing around the flag’s rising support trendline.
$BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Rebounds from this area can be pushed up. $BTC Towards the upper end of the flag near $90,000, this zone is also close to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level and the 3-6 month holder cost base.
Therefore, if the bulls are able to defend the current support area, $90,000 becomes a major upside target in the coming months.
Conversely, if the daily closing price falls below the lower trend line, there is a risk that a breakdown will be confirmed, opening the door to a deeper decline towards the $50,000-$60,000 range, depending on the exact breakdown point.
In that scenario, the recent bounce off holder cost-based support would look more like a bailout within a broader downtrend than the start of a sustained recovery.
This article was created in accordance with Cointelegraph’s editorial policies and is for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trading involve risk. Readers are encouraged to do their own research.
