Bitcoin flashes one of the rarest demand signals in the past 6 years – details

Bitcoin remains above $62,000 after a steep selloff that defined the market last week and wiped out months of recovery progress in a matter of days. Prices are stabilizing, but analyst MorenoDV has published a demand analysis that puts current market conditions into historical context, making stability feel much more fragile than the sustained price level would suggest.

Bitcoin demand has entered one of the most extreme contractions since 2019. The 30-day growth in demand for spot and perpetual futures combined is decreasing towards -650,000. $BTC — A threshold reached only three times in the entire history of the chart. The scarcity of this number is the first signal that the current environment is more structurally serious than a slowdown in day-to-day demand.

Of particular interest to the analysis of MorenoDV is the contraction architecture. Spot demand and perpetual futures demand are shrinking at the same time. So the weakness is not just speculative leverage unwinding. Organic buyers, who typically absorb price declines through spot purchases, and derivatives participants, who express directional confidence through futures exposure, are both exiting at the same time. The two demand streams that provide Bitcoin’s marginal purchasing capacity are disappearing in parallel, rather than one offsetting the other.

What remains is a market with fewer buyers, a reduced ability to absorb selling pressure, and a demand structure that has only been this extreme three times in Bitcoin’s modern market history.

Three times in history, the last two were not yet at the bottom.

The MorenoDV analysis applies a historical framework that prevents extreme demand contraction readings from being interpreted as automatic yield confirmations. Two previous occasions when total demand decreased towards -650,000 $BTC Thresholds have certain useful implications that should be used to evaluate your current configuration.

Growth in demand for Bitcoin spot and perpetual futures | Source: CryptoQuant

The first collapse towards this level occurred before the coronavirus crash. Before the last liquidity shock arrived, demand deterioration was already underway. The indicators that reached the extreme contraction were not at the bottom. It was an early warning ahead of the actual surrender incident that followed weeks later.

Similar characteristics were seen in the 2022 bear market. The extreme reduction in demand was more a reflection of severe structural deterioration than a mark on the floor. The subsequent interaction with the higher support zone occurred as the market went through a broader bottoming and restructuring process. This is a long-term sequence rather than a single decisive moment.

The current setup therefore resembles the beginning of a final cleansing phase rather than a confirmed reversal. MorenoDV identifies the most likely path as an initial expansion in volatility and subsequent analysis of price paralysis, i.e., weak momentum, compression of activity, and a prolonged sideways movement that exhausts remaining participants without resulting in a dramatic capitulation event that results in psychological closure.

This stage can be more damaging than the decline itself. A sharp decline not only creates fear, but also determination. You will have to make a decision and make your position clear. The prolongation of lateral action at depressed levels tends to gradually erode belief, test patience beyond its limits, and shake off the holder who, although he has endured the initial fall, cannot endure the silence that follows.