Bitcoin miners are facing increasing financial strain as falling prices and shrinking revenues push several key industry indicators into what analyst Axel Adler Jr. describes as a “stress zone.”
However, despite mounting pressure, data suggests the market has not yet reached the level of extreme collapse seen in 2018 or 2022.
What the metrics tell us
Adler said the 30-day moving average of the Puel multiple compares current daily earnings. $BTC The number of miners reached a 365-day average, decreasing by 11% in 10 days, rising from 0.83 at the end of May to 0.74 as of June 10th.
The raw Puell Multiple is even lower at 0.58. According to analysts, a value below 1.0 means current earnings are below the annual norm, and the deeper the number, the harder the situation for mining operators.
For context, Puel 30DMA reached a peak of 1.33 in July 2025. $BTC It was trading for more than $120,000. The current value of 0.74 is roughly the same as where miners were in mid-2024, during the halving period when the main cryptocurrency was being replaced between $55,000 and $68,000.
Adler said the metric dropped to 0.45 at the cycle low in 2022, but reached 0.33 in December 2018. So judging from these, 0.74 is not exactly a critical number.
However, the problem, as market observers have pointed out, is that the 30DMA has been falling for two consecutive weeks, and if it continues at that pace, there is a good chance it will reach 0.50 by late June, a level that could lead to large-scale outages in 2022.
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The second metric is the price-to-miner revenue multiple, which measures how much more than the annual revenue per miner. $BTC of miners’ virtual currency prices are being traded.
According to Adler, the decline in measurements means that the speculative premium on miners’ production costs is shrinking. The ratio is now 80, down from the high of 160 recorded in 2025.
However, analysts say this is a “normalization zone” and not yet in the realm of underestimation. For comparison, the bottom in 2022 reached 33, but in February 2019 it compressed to 15.
Finally, Adler touched on the Miner Capitalization Index, which tracks the percentage change in Bitcoin price since the most recent difficulty bottom. According to his report, the drawdown was -21% as of June 9, -8% as of June 1, and almost zero at the end of May.
Historically, the predicament for miners has worsened as miners exceed -30%, reaching -39% in 2022, the worst figure on record and contributing to the forced sales and large-scale ASIC outages seen in the same year.
How far is it from the true bottom?
Despite the pressure, Adler confirms that miners have not yet fully capitulated, and for that to happen, the Puel multiple will likely need to fall below 0.50, the price-to-miner revenue multiple will need to compress into the 30-40 range, and the drop in difficulty from the bottom will need to exceed -30%.
Currently, all three indicators are running at about half of their historical extreme severity levels. But analysts said it could get worse if that happens. $BTC Without the new difficulty adjustment, it could have dropped below $55,000.
The asset was trading hundreds of dollars below $63,000 at press time, but it briefly tumbled toward $59,000 last Friday, its worst price move in nearly two years.
