Bitcoinbacklash puts recent buyers under pressure
Bitcoin It stabilized after a sharp decline that coincided with rising geopolitical tensions and a significant pullback in risk assets. Although the recovery has eased some of the market stress seen earlier this month, blockchain Data suggests investors are still weathering historically associated conditions bear market.
On-chain data analysis company Glassnode’s June 17 market report showed: Bitcoin After a steep drop in June that sent prices to multi-month lows, they have rebounded. Despite the recovery, the asset remains significantly below the true market average, a key on-chain benchmark used to distinguish bulls from bulls. bear market system.
“The true market average tracks the average acquisition price of actively traded coins and historically serves as the dividing line between bear and bull markets,” Glassnod explained. The company values the index at $77,200, well above the current market price.
Glassnod says:
“Currently at $77,200, the market is firmly in discount territory, about 15% above the spot price of around $65,600.”
Recent buyers remain under pressure even after the rebound. Short Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV), a metric that compares the current value of a coin held by recent buyers to the price paid by buyers, improved from 0.81 to 0.90, but remains below the break-even threshold of 1.0. The estimated cost basis for this cohort is approximately $72,600, meaning new holders are facing an unrealized loss of approximately 10%.
Profitability data also remained weak. The 30-day realized P/L ratio is 0.53, indicating that realized losses continue to exceed gains.
Conditions for a stronger recovery remain unfulfilled
Capital flows have improved but remain negative. The realized cap fell 1.45% in the 90-day period to $1.07 trillion, but the seven-day change improved to -0.18%, indicating outflows are slowing.
Glassnode details:
“The conditions required before we can consider a reliable transition to the pre-bull phase are specific and measurable: the true market average returns to near $77.2 million, MVRV for short-term holders returns above 1.0, and the 90-day realization cap turns positive.”
As of June 17, all three indicators remained below that level. Bitcoin remains below the true market average, with MVRV for short-term holders below 1.0, and the realization cap continues to shrink over the 90-day period.
The market structure showed some stability. After Bitcoin neared $60,000, buy-side liquidity outpaced dormant sell orders by the widest margin in months, according to Binance order book data, showing the strength of demand to absorb supply during downturns.
