Kerr, a pseudonymous analyst, wrote a rebuttal to a Bloomberg report about alleged insider trading that flagged certain wallets and labeled tens of millions of transactions suspicious.
Carr’s thread highlighted what he claims are several problems with Bloomberg’s methodology. Analysts said the publication misread on-chain data to exaggerate awards and build a case that won’t succeed.
What did Carr say was wrong with Bloomberg’s reporting?
Carr said the flaws in the Bloomberg report began with its reliance on data from Polysights, a blockchain analysis tool that flagged $45 million in Trump-related market volume as suspicious and flagged 34,225 wallets as possible insiders.
“Do Bloomberg journalists think anyone can get inside information about Argentina winning the World Cup?” Kerr wrote in X, pointing out the absurdity of treating algorithmic flags as evidence of fraud.
Carr also questioned how Bloomberg came up with the $1.5 million figure. The top winner of the related contract earned $1.1 million, according to Polymarket’s proprietary position leaderboard, but no wallet tracked by Bloomberg appeared at that level.
car Bloomberg tracked the wallets identified. The report found that the account had earned “hundreds of thousands” as opposed to the $1.5 million the report claimed.
Carr said the account had a history of making large bets on elections and sports, but that doesn’t necessarily imply someone was acting on confidential information.
the car wrote“Even the most trusted newspapers are very bad at reporting on alleged insiders and suspicious wallets in polymarkets,” he added. “We know from experience that insider trading in polymarkets is not on the scale the media claims.”
Why do stories of insider trading surround prediction markets?
Given the events that unfolded on various platforms, doubts about the integrity of prediction markets are not unfounded.
In January 2026, a newly created Polymarket account placed a $32,000 bet that Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro would be ousted from power, hours before the US military captured him. More than $430,000 was collected from that account.
A month later, Israeli authorities indicted the two men for using secret military information to gamble on polymarkets ahead of the attack on Iran.
Blockchain analysis firm Bubble Maps also identified six accounts that won a total of $1 million by betting on the exact date of the February 28 strike. All six accounts were funded within 24 hours of the attack.
More than $529 million was traded in polymarket contracts related to the timing of the Iran attack.
These events required Polymarket to update its integrity rules in March 2026. The platform currently prohibits trading on confidential information in violation of fiduciary duties, acting on information from insiders, and betting on outcomes that traders can influence.
Neil KumarPolymarket’s chief legal officer said during the period that the rules “make our expectations abundantly clear to all participants on both platforms.”
Representative Ritchie Torres also introduced the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 in January, which would prohibit anyone with access to sensitive non-public government information from trading in prediction markets. The bill currently has more than 40 Democratic co-sponsors.
What does Car’s argument mean for prediction markets?
Automotive defense may be seen as a breath of fresh air for prediction markets. Markets are facing increased scrutiny over who actually benefits. Insider trading allegations.
According to a study published in April 2026 by analyst Andrei Sergenkov. 84.1% of Polymarket traders Only 2% of 2.5 million wallets have ever made $1,000 in revenue.
Only 35 out of 2.5 million traders were able to earn the equivalent of the average monthly salary in the United States for 12 consecutive months.
Kerr acknowledged that there may be one or two genuine insider cases on the platform. But he says the media’s pattern of treating every well-timed, high-conviction bet as evidence of insider information distorts the reality of how prediction markets work, where high, concentrated bets are the norm for experienced traders.
