Fed policy expectations drive market divergence
Grayscale Investments tied Bitcoinargues that stocks have been slower than stocks to respond to the Federal Reserve’s policy reassessment. Bitcoin If the Fed postpones interest rate hikes, the performance gap with stock prices may narrow. In the June 22nd research note, cryptography The asset management company stated that changes in interest rate expectations are contributing to the divergence between stocks. Bitcoinand gold.
Grayscale detailed that U.S. stocks are up 9% since the start of the Iran war in late February, supported in part by sustained spending related to artificial intelligence infrastructure and development. During the same period, Bitcoin fell 1%, but gold is down 20%, creating one of the widest performance disparities of any major macro asset.
said Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale Investments.
“Our base case is that the Fed holds off on raising rates. If we’re right; BitcoinThe price of the stock may catch up with the stock price. ”
Investor expectations regarding monetary policy are shifting toward tightening. The Fed’s one-year rate forecast has risen about 60 basis points since late February, with about half of Fed officials now suggesting a rate hike in 2026 could be justified.
On June 17, at Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting as Federal Reserve Chairman, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. The Fed stated: inflation Energy prices exceeding the 2% target contributed to this. inflation pressure. The next Fed interest rate setting meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, 2026.
Central banks outside the United States have already begun tightening. The European Central Bank (ECB) has already raised interest rates, reinforcing a broader shift to tighter monetary policy as authorities respond to policy persistence. inflation Pressure from rising borrowing costs.
How to see gray scale Bitcoin as both a financial asset and growth exposure
Interest rate expectations are especially important for assets that do not produce income. As real yields rise, investors can earn higher returns from cash and bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding alternative instruments such as bonds. Bitcoin and gold.
Grayscale claimed that Bitcoin It occupies a different status from traditional monetary assets. The company described the asset as a rare digital commodity that can act as a long-term store of value while providing exposure to public growth. blockchain network and wider cryptography ecosystem.
Pandor pointed out:
“it is BitcoinThe function is similar to, but not identical to, the following functions: gold Growth stocks in your portfolio. If so, Bitcoin It could serve as a portfolio diversifier, which looks attractively priced at current levels. ”
This framework places Bitcoin between two investment categories that respond differently to macroeconomic developments. Gold is typically traded as a financial hedge. Growth stocks benefit from technology investments and expectations for future returns. Current pricing reflects those influences. Grayscale said the recent declines in Bitcoin and gold are consistent with changes in interest rate expectations. Stock prices have been supported by AI-related investments.
