Diplomatic efforts between Iran and the United States showed early signs of progress after senior officials from both countries met in Switzerland.
Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan said the talks were constructive as both sides agreed to a 60-day deadline for a final agreement. A further technical meeting will be held at the Bürgenstock Resort later this week. Optimism surrounding the talks temporarily boosted Bitcoin ($BTC) above $64,000, but the asset has since regained some gains and fallen below that level.
However, tensions between the two countries remain, with the agreement not signed by June 19 as promised and new attacks between Israel and Lebanon. One analyst outlined potential downside scenarios for Bitcoin if broader market conditions worsen.
worst case scenario
According to technical analyst Jesse Olson, Bitcoin could drop to $23,979 in 2026 if the overall stock market crashes by more than 50%. He shared the following two-week Bitcoin chart. $BTC Based on the long-term volume-weighted support line derived from his proprietary Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator, a fall towards the $23,980 level is possible.
Olson said such a move would likely require a significant drop in stock prices, but added that he does not expect Bitcoin to hit zero.
Meanwhile, another prominent market commentator, Dr. Proffitt, said that while Bitcoin has formed a bearish flag on the daily chart, rising market optimism is creating liquidity below the current price. He explained that Bitcoin’s recent rise is in line with previous expectations, and that the price can return to the same level multiple times during sideways trading. He expects the asset to eventually fall towards the $54,000 to $56,000 range, before finding the market bottom at a lower level.
Delay in institutional investor demand
From June 14th to June 18th, the Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows of $227 million, extending its losing streak to six consecutive weeks.
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CryptoQuant analyst Dirkforst also highlighted weak demand for Bitcoin from institutional investors, noting that the Coinbase Premium Index has remained mostly negative in recent weeks. indicators compare $BTC Analyze Coinbase Advanced and Binance prices to measure the behavior of professional and retail investors.
According to Dirkforst, the negative numbers mean that institutional investors trading on Coinbase are selling more aggressively than retail investors on Binance, putting downward pressure on the price. He added that the widening price gap between the two exchanges indicates a wide divergence in investor behavior. Institutional investors are not trying to grab the bottom of the market. Instead, they prefer to wait for stronger price performance and clearer signs of recovery before increasing their exposure to Bitcoin.
