Cryptocurrency analyst Aaron Dischner noted that Bitcoin has hit its lowest one-day closing price since September 2024. According to Dischner, the move $BTC It broke below the short-term support level and briefly formed a new local low around $57,800.
The analyst said the current outlook paints a picture at odds with Bitcoin’s historically strong July performance. Dischner said July has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, with previous “bottom years” in 2018 and 2022. $BTC On average, you recover about 19%.
According to Dischner, this scenario could coincide with an oversold rally in Bitcoin heading into the weekly TBO fastline. However, the analyst added: $BTC Both the daily and weekly TBO indicators remain in a strong downward trend.
Dischner noted that Ethereum is exhibiting a similar situation to Bitcoin, stating that ETH maintains a strong bearish outlook on daily and weekly TBO indicators. However, he added that the on-balance-sheet volume moving averages for both Bitcoin and Ethereum are starting to flatten. The analyst said this does not confirm a new bullish trend, but it does suggest that the current downtrend may be poised to change its nature in the short term.
According to the daily TBO Cloud, the market capitalization of virtual currencies excluding stablecoins remains in a strongly bearish zone. However, Dischner noted that the OBV moving average is starting to flatten in this area as well. According to the analyst, a similar market structure at the recent July lows allowed the stock to recover towards the weekly TBO first line before falling again.
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Dischner also said that a possible economic recovery in July could put pressure on stablecoins’ dominance. According to analysts, the stablecoin’s overall dominance is hovering around 13%, which is the accumulation zone target. However, if Bitcoin rebounds, this rate could drop below the daily cloud floor, i.e. 11%.
But Dischner added that the bigger risks haven’t gone away yet. The analyst said similar early warning reversal signals were seen before the June decline. Moreover, August and September remain historically weak months for Bitcoin and crypto markets. Therefore, Dischner said July’s potential rally should not be viewed as confirmation that a long-term bottom has definitively formed, but rather as a reactionary rally resulting from an oversold situation.
On the altcoin side, tactical opportunities are emerging for some assets, analysts say. Dischner said Solana is working on a second TBO close-short signal, which could be a bullish reversal signal in the short term. He noted that there is room for HYPE up to the 1,272 Fibonacci extension level of approximately $79,372, that a TBT bullish divergence structure is developing on BCH, that XMR could target the $418.60 TBO resistance on an upward move, and that a second week TBT bullish divergence cluster is forming on KAS.
Dischner also pointed out that altcoins such as ICP, WLD, FET, SEI, WIF, and FARTCOIN are showing signs of a rebound or reversal. Conversely, some of the best-performing assets of recent times, such as LAB, are starting to lose momentum, he said.
*This is not investment advice.
