Ethereum opened near $1,615 in July 2026 after ending with three consecutive quarters of losses for the first time in trading history. A weak streak was placed $ETH Traders are under pressure as they look to see if the decline can be halted in the third quarter.
Ethereum ended the fourth quarter of 2025 down 28.28%, according to quarterly data from Coinglass. It then declined by 29.26% in Q1 2026 and by 25.43% in Q2 2026. This marked the third consecutive quarterly loss. Ethereum had not recorded that pattern since it began recording quarterly trading data in 2016.
Ethereum, July odds split after historic losing streak
This weakness has now transferred into the third quarter, which began on July 1st. According to historical data, Q3 was the least directional quarter for Ethereum. According to data from Coinglass, stocks rose an average of 7.05% in the third quarter. The median return is 6.51%.
The third quarter will determine whether Ethereum ends its losing streak or extends its losing streak into the fourth quarter. However, Polymarket odds have mixed expectations for Ethereum in July, with traders pricing in both a recovery and further decline.
There is a 74% chance that Ethereum will reach $1,700 in July. The chance of reaching the $1,800 goal is low at 42%. However, the $1,600 price target has the highest probability of reading at 76%, suggesting that traders still expect the price to fall below the current support zone.
The probability of the $1,500 level is 64%. The indicated volume is $500, but the odds are up 14%, making it one of the hottest downside targets.
Lower levels indicate lower odds. The probability of Ethereum reaching $1,400 is 39%, while the probability of the $1,300 target is 20%.
Ethereum sentiment could rise above $1,700
According to an X post by Crypto with Haris, the next big move for Ethereum will be $ETH First you reach $1,200 or $2,000.
His timeline was filled with calls for $1,000 of Ethereum. But he said he does not expect that level at this point. The analyst said that Ethereum has already become one of the hardest hit major coins this cycle. he added: $ETH It is building a strong foundation around the $1,500 to $1,600 zone.
Analyst said further BTC flashes could still be under pressure $ETH. In that case, he believes the realistic downside is around $1,200 to $1,300. He said that Ethereum holdings are doing better than most expected.
The analyst also said that sentiment could change quickly if Ethereum regains $1,700. In his view, traders demanding $1,000 could soon start discussing $2,000 again.
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