Crypto prediction markets continue to be suppressed in Asia, with investment, liquidity, and innovation flowing to Western countries that choose to regulate.
In a July 8 report, Web3’s research firm Tiger Research suggested that the characterization of prediction markets as illegal gambling is preventing Asian countries from enjoying the prosperity of blockchain markets. Rather than halting demand, legal restrictions only push users and business transactions onto international platforms, making them less secure for consumers.
Growth in this space is being fueled by crypto-native platforms like Polymarket, where transactions are settled on-chain. Tiger Research estimates that trade is worth more than $14 billion each month. Additionally, the industry leaders have a total value of $40 billion.
According to the report, prediction markets sell contracts that pay $1 if an event occurs and $0 if the event does not occur. Predictions are therefore real-time estimates of probabilities. Academic research has shown that these markets can generate useful predictions. The Arena project reported by Meta is an example of the growing interest in this technology beyond cryptocurrencies.
Asia continues to reach for the hammer of prohibition
Cryptocurrency prediction markets are largely considered illegal gambling by authorities on the Asian continent.
In January 2025, the Singapore Gaming Regulatory Authority deemed the Polymarket platform to be an unauthorized gambling website and took censorship action. Additionally, the use of the platform was restricted across Taiwan after users were punished for violating election laws during the 2024 presidential election. Use of the platform was later deemed illegal in Thailand when internet service providers were ordered to censor it, while China continues its long-standing ban on all gambling and crypto platforms.
Polymarket has now expanded the list of countries where the platform is unavailable to include Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Myanmar, North Korea, Singapore, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand, and Yemen. Users in Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand will not be able to place new bets on the Polymarket platform and will only be allowed to close positions on Polymarket.
The trend of regulators cracking down on cryptocurrency prediction markets continues across Asia. As noted by Interexy, a company specializing in blockchain development, India will ban real money online gaming in 2025 and said the ban follows the action taken against Probo, an opinion trading platform operating in the country.
The Philippines also revoked licenses for offshore gambling operations, Hong Kong warned that cryptocurrency prediction markets could be treated as illegal gambling, Indonesia froze more than 33,000 gambling-related accounts, and Vietnam banned illegal gambling apps from its app stores. Interexy concluded that regulators continue to apply decades-old gambling laws instead of developing rules specifically for crypto prediction markets.
Nevertheless, demand remains strong. According to Chosun Ilbo, the South Korean gambling exchange known as Opinion has seen weekly trading volume exceed an astonishing 2 trillion won since its establishment, despite strict measures imposed by the country’s gambling regulations, underscoring that the regulations do not prevent gamblers from such activities, but only push them elsewhere.
Western countries chose regulation and made money.
For the West, the tide has changed, and the difference is reflected in the amount of money. Rather than outright banning prediction markets, US authorities have allowed regulated event contracts to coexist with crypto exchanges. Blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs estimates that prediction market trading volume rose from about $1.2 billion per month in early 2025 to more than $20 billion in January 2026, involving about 840,000 active wallets.
Polymarket and Kalshi paved the way for expansion. KALSI functions as a designated contract market under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This special status has allowed partners like CNN and Robinhood to significantly embrace event-based financial contracts.
Despite the regulatory measures, this did not stop many experts from voicing their concerns. Former SEC Commissioner Joseph Grundfest warned that highly unusual event contracts could allow for inside trading, and argued that Polymarket lacks anti-money laundering and customer awareness regulations required in U.S. financial markets.
Similarly, distressed asset investor Thomas Brazile called prediction markets “sports gambling wrapped in finance.” He also warned that with so much regulatory uncertainty, it’s only a matter of time before venture capitalists start regretting their investments. U.S. regulators have also called for increased oversight in the wake of insider trading scandals involving event-driven contracts.
Currently, legal debate in the United States focuses on whether federal commodity laws take precedence over state gambling regulations. Grundfest said the issue could eventually reach the Supreme Court. But in Asia, the competitive implications are already being felt.
Tiger Research said relying on gambling bans could lead to a loss of capital, liquidity and innovation as other regions have adopted regulated prediction market frameworks. As Western markets improve their regulatory regimes, Asian countries are under additional pressure to determine whether existing gambling laws remain the best way to oversee one of the fastest growing industries in the crypto space.
