Bitcoin is once again trading near its all-time high of $69,000. Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez said the world’s largest cryptocurrency is following the same pattern that once led to gains of more than 7,500% and 550% in early market cycles.
At the same time, on-chain indicators are flashing familiar signals that could indicate another big move.
Bitcoin nears historic $69,000 level
Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez said there have only been a few times in history when Bitcoin traded below the previous cycle’s high, and each time it later turned out to be a great buying opportunity.
During the 2015 cycle, Bitcoin fell below its previous peak of around $259, but rose more than 7,500% during the ensuing bull market.
A similar pattern emerged after the 2021 cycle. In late 2022, Bitcoin fell below its all-time high of $19,660, before rising more than 550% to its all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025.
Now history is repeating itself again. Since June, Bitcoin has been trading below its 2021 all-time high of nearly $69,000.
Martinez believes that regaining and sustaining this level could signal Bitcoin exiting the bear market and entering a new long-term uptrend.
On-chain data shows buyers are defending Bitcoin
Glassnode’s latest short-term holders (STH) cost-based distribution heatmap shows that after the recent recovery from $57,000, many new investors bought Bitcoin between $62,000 and $65,000.
This creates a strong support zone as many holders currently own Bitcoin around these prices.
However, Glassnode also cautions that much of this buying occurred near the end of the recent bull market. If Bitcoin fails to break above $66,000, these new buyers could start taking profits, increasing the risk of another short-term pullback.
Long-term cycle still suggests greater recovery
Crypto analyst Recto Capital believes Bitcoin is still following a traditional four-year cycle.
He said 2025 was the peak of the bull market, but 2026 will continue to behave like a bear market year. He expects 2027 to be the final bottoming phase before a completely new Bitcoin bull cycle begins.
Despite the current weakness, analysts say Bitcoin continues to follow many of the same patterns seen in past market cycles.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,460, and traders are looking to see if BTC can regain $69,000 and confirm the next big trend.
