Ethereum traded around $1,860 on Saturday, July 25th, down from recent highs above $1,950 reached earlier in the week. This pullback followed a monthly recovery that lifted the token from lows near $1,510 in late June.
Polymarket $1,000 to $3,000 Equal Split
At Polymarket, a contract was created with the question: “Will Ethereum reach $1,000 first or $3,000?” It collected a volume of $95,300. Traders are currently pricing a $1,000 result at 54 cents and a $3,000 result at 50 cents, almost evenly. The market will be solved using Binance $ETH/USDT 1 minute candlestick data, expiration date is December 31, 2026.
A broader polymarket titled “What Price Will Ethereum Reach in 2026?” raised nearly $9 million. Traders say there is an 83% chance that Ethereum will reach $2,000 and a 56% chance that it will reach $2,500, but the odds drop sharply above those levels, with odds dropping to 12% for $3,500 and less than 4% for $5,000.
The Ethereum contract that fell to $1,500 had a trading volume of $1.86 million, the single largest frame of the entire event, with traders giving it a 47% probability.
Long odds to update all-time highs
Another polymarket contract tracking whether Ethereum hits a new all-time high includes a trading volume of $2.3 million. Traders say there is only a 6% chance of that outcome happening by December 31st and a 1% chance of it happening by September 30th. Both results rely on Binance’s 1-minute candlestick data, and the market will only say yes if the new high exceeds all candlestick highs recorded since December 16, 2025.
The large difference between these two dates shows how skeptical traders are about a short-term breakout. Ethereum’s all-time high is around $4,946, reached in late August 2025. The current price of about $1,860 is about 62% below that all-time high, and the difference is large enough that most bettors believe there is little chance of a new record being set before the calendar changes.
Kalsi Traders caps forecast around $3,210
Kalsi runs a parallel market called “How high will Ethereum go this year?” Traders there are pegging the price of Ethereum at 15% above $3,500, 12% above $3,750, and 10% above $4,000.
This market is settled using the CF Ethereum Real-Time Index and expires on January 1, 2027.
ETF inflows and Bitcoin assets increasing
The bet comes as Ethereum shows signs of a return to institutional demand. The Spot Ethereum ETF, led by BlackRock’s ETHA fund and Fidelity’s FETH fund, brought in inflows of roughly $72 million to $73 million in one day in recent trading. Cumulative net inflows into the ETF group exceeded $11 billion.
Bitmine Immersion Technologies, the largest corporate holder of Ethereum, expanded its position to approximately 5.78 million coins, reaching nearly 4.8% of the circulating supply. The company continues to buy, even as it conducts share buybacks, working toward its goal of owning 5% of all Ethereum in circulation.
Supply is tight due to exchange outflows and staking
Foreign exchange reserves fall to multi-year low of nearly $15.1 million $ETHdown from more than 21 million in the same period last year. Approximately 658,600 coins were leaked from platforms including Gemini and Bitfinex in recent weeks, worth more than $1.2 billion at the time.
Staking activity is also increasing, with reports showing nearly 33.6% of the Ether supply is currently locked and validator exit queues decreasing towards zero.
Gramsterdam upgrade still in progress
Ethereum’s next major protocol upgrade, known as Gramsterdam, is scheduled for late 2026. This upgrade includes separation of the proposer builder and changes to the block-level access list built to allow the network to process transactions in parallel, as well as a higher gas limit floor of 200 million. Mainnet activation is planned for September-October and will continue until stable results are achieved on the public testnet.
Transaction fees have recently dropped to about eight-tenths of a cent. This shows that Layer 2 scaling continues to reduce costs for everyday users. Lower fees and increased staking will give traders on both platforms more data when pricing where Ethereum will go next.
what happens next
The decline came alongside a broader slide in cryptocurrencies and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, weighing on risk assets. Support is concentrated around $1,850, and resistance has formed around $1,900 to $1,920.
The coming months will test whether ETF inflows, currency supply contraction, and accumulation from companies like Bitmine can outweigh macro pressures and push Ethereum toward the upper end of its 2026 price target.
