Bitcoin on-chain data shows that the market is more balanced, rather than simply in a “bullish” or “bearish” phase.
Although Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) has seen some significant gains in July, other indicators such as NUPL and MVRV suggest that the market is cooling rather than experiencing a significant decline.
The data points to a healthy reset in the market with long-term holders becoming more active, but there are few signs of panic selling or large-scale profit-taking.
Dormant Bitcoin begins to move
In particular, CDD tracks the movement of older Bitcoins by measuring the period of inactivity before a coin is no longer used. Since the beginning of July, CDD has been volatile. The number of people jumped to 32 million on July 2, fell to 3 million two days later, rose again to 25 million on July 16, and continued to fluctuate since then, most recently reaching about 9.8 million.
These spikes indicate that long-term holders are moving some of their Bitcoin around. Historically, increases in CDD have coincided with increased movement in older coins, sometimes at times of profit taking or portfolio rebalancing.
However, current levels are still far below those seen during past market peaks. For example, CDD exceeded 340 million in November 2025, suggesting July activity is significant but not a sign of widespread selling.
Basically, the data shows that old Bitcoin is moving, but it does not suggest a massive market decline.
Bitcoin movement does not necessarily mean selling
On the other hand, a rise in CDD does not necessarily mean that investors are selling Bitcoin. CryptoQuant analyst Rei Researcher noted that the CDD of exchange inflows on Binance remains low, suggesting that a large amount of old Bitcoin is not being transferred to exchanges for sale.
Rather, this movement could be the result of investors adjusting their holdings, moving coins between wallets, or preparing for future market movements. In other words, CDD shows that older Bitcoin is becoming more active, but it does not show strong signs of a large-scale sell-off.
Profitability has declined, but the market has not collapsed
NUPL, which tracks unrealized gains across the market, shows that Bitcoin investors’ profits have declined compared to earlier in the cycle.
Recent CryptoQuant data suggests that NUPL has returned to neutral levels. This means that investors’ returns have declined and the extreme optimism often seen near market peaks has diminished.
This suggests that the market is recovering after a period of speculation. Long-term holders are still seeing healthy returns and are not exhibiting the stress typically seen in major bear markets.
However, short-term holders are more likely to react to price changes and contribute to short-term volatility because they are closer to the break-even point.
MVRV shows that the market is fairly valued
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio tells a similar story. This indicates that the market is currently neither significantly undervalued nor overvalued. MVRV is around 1.23, above levels Bitcoin typically sees during periods of accumulation, but still well below the extreme levels often seen at market tops.
Although unrealized gains for long-term holders have fallen from record highs, there are no signs of a large-scale sell-off.
In other words, MVRV suggests that Bitcoin’s valuation has calmed down and returned to a more balanced level, even though the price is still high compared to previous cycles.
Long-term holders remain confident
Despite the increase in Bitcoin activity, on-chain data shows that long-term investors remain confident.
CryptoQuant analyst burakkesmeci reported that long-term holders purchased 1.29 million shares. $BTCThis occurred while Bitcoin was trading close to its realized price.
In other words, the huge accumulation confirms how investors see 2026. $BTC The decline is not a reason to sell, but an opportunity to buy. Following this accumulation, the price of Bitcoin increased by approximately 15% from $57,500 to $66,000.
Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analyst Nino pointed out that many Bitcoins held for 6-12 months are moving to exchanges. The analyst suggested that rather than viewing this as a sign of a sell-off, it could simply reflect investors adjusting their portfolios as Bitcoin approaches key resistance levels.
Market in transition
A sudden spike in CDD itself could suggest that long-term holders are preparing to sell. However, the picture is more balanced.
Older Bitcoins are moving more frequently, but inflows to exchanges are still low. Investor returns are declining but not collapsing, and market data suggests Bitcoin is cooling down from its overheated levels. At the same time, long-term holders continue to show confidence by accumulating Bitcoin.
Fundamentally, Bitcoin’s on-chain data reveals that the market is in transition. Older investors are becoming more active, but activity levels have not yet reached levels that would signal the end of a market cycle.
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