According to Cryptocon’s two-year Fibonacci roadmap, $166,000 looks inevitable for Bitcoin

The recent price movement for Bitcoin continues closely with the two-year Fibonacci model. According to analyst Cryptocon, the next logic level could be around $166,000.

Fibonacci’s Bitcoin Rise Fingerprint

Bitcoin (BTC) has sparked all the usual market questions with its recent all-time high of nearly $123,000. Some people think it has the top. Others believe there is more room for growth.

As of this writing on August 4th, BTC had dropped by about 7% from its recent peak, down around 4% over the past seven days to around $114,500.

BTC Price Chart | Source: crypto.news

However, widely followed analyst Cryptocon believes Bitcoin follows a recurring pattern based on Fibonacci expansion. His model offers a path that Bitcoin has already been going on for nearly two years. And if that path continues, your next destination may not be a surprise at all.

The story begins in late 2022, when Bitcoin fell to around $15,500 after FTX collapsed. That was the low point of the current cycle. Cryptocon calls this retrace point zero.

From there, Bitcoin began to climb in stages. In April 2023, BTC reached around $30,362, in line with the 1.618 Fibonacci expansion. It paused at that level, moved sideways for several months and climbed again.

In January 2024, matching the 2.618 extension, and after a slight pullback, Bitcoin held that level as support.

Two more important levels followed. In March and June 2024, Bitcoin touched on the 3.618 extension for $71,591, not breaking through both times. It was integrated, as was the early Fibonacci level.

Then in January 2025 it broke past that zone and reached $109,236, matching the 4.618 extension. BTC’s recent high of $123,000 is above that level, but below the next level. And importantly, $123,000 is not an expansion of Fibonacci. It’s in the meantime.

According to Cryptocon, this will become a transition zone. If the pattern continues, the next logical step is the 5.618 level, which is $166,754.

Why History still rhymes for $166,000

The Cryptocon model may sound technical, but it’s not new. The same Fibonacci structure has also appeared in the previous Bitcoin Cycle.

In 2013, Bitcoin peaked at around $1,150. This was a 5.618 extension from the 2012 breakout. In 2017, the top came at nearly $20,000, surpassing the 4.618 level from the 2015 low.

Even the 2021 cycle called Many reached nearly $69,000.

These repeated alignments suggest that Fibonacci levels acted like pressure points where Bitcoin pauses or reverses.

This brings us back to today. Those between $15,500 and $30,362 earned around 95%. From there, up to $46, the 831 was about 54%. Then it was up to $71, with 591 at an additional 53%. Approximately 52% added to $109,236 from $71,591.

These stages reflect how Bitcoin climbed in a well-defined burst, often pulling back at each level and then continuing up. If the same interval is applied again, a 52% increase from the last level will result in the next target of $166,754, matching the 5.618 extension.

There are also non-technical factors that support this idea. Bitcoin was cut in half in April 2024, resulting in a decline in supply issued to miners. This is an event that led to historically higher prices the following year.

After halving in 2012 and 2016, Bitcoin recovered sharply over 12-18 months. We are now in that post-harking window 16 months ago.

As a result, there is a market that moves along past cycles, with both mathematical and macro powers pointing to the same next level.

Macro movements and policy shifts

Previously, Bitcoin Cycles were primarily slower control over retail enthusiasm and exchange behavior. However, the current cycle is different. This is shaped like technical signals and on-chain patterns by liquidity flows, macroeconomic policies and political orientations.

At the macro level, the US Federal Reserve continues to hold interest rates in the range of 4.25-4.5%. Inflation has declined since its peak in 2022, but it is sticky. Core inflation is about 3%, exceeding the Fed’s 2% target.

This delayed our solid commitment to rate reduction. Economic data shows signs of weakening, but central banks are cautious.

The major consumer price index report is scheduled for mid-August, with a forecast of 2.9% in headline inflation and 3% in core.

If these numbers are low, the market could begin to price potential rate reductions by the fourth quarter. However, until then, policies remain strict, with the market responding to data rather than guesses.

Regulatory aspects, the US has begun to signal changes in tone. In July 2025, the Genius Act was finally passed, providing a legal framework for Stablecoins and defining digital asset classifications more clearly.

At about the same time, a pilot program called Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was approved for fundraising. This allows the federal government to hold Bitcoin as part of its broader asset portfolio.

Enforcement action has also been delayed as the SEC has suspended several cases. The direction appears to be directed towards integration and regulation rather than restriction.

ETF demand shows how strong its integration is already. BlackRock’s Ishares Bitcoin Trust currently holds approximately 740,000 BTC and has an estimated $85 billion in assets. This is one of the biggest ETFs ever launched.

Total assets reached nearly $150 billion across all US spot Bitcoin ETFs. This represents approximately 6.5% of Bitcoin’s total market capitalization, allowing multiple institutions to be controlled for each of the 15 Bitcoins currently in circulation.

All of these support the background of institutional demand being able to grow without friction and increasing demand.

Clues to Action and What Comes Next

The $166,000 goal drawn from Cryptocon’s Fibonacci model may seem purely structural, but recent observations from other analysts suggest that the pace of movement can be influenced by behavioral and seasonal variables.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen highlighted the consistent seasonal trends observed in previous years after harnings. Bitcoin announced profits in both July and August, then revised in September, with a bounce in October.

The patterns appeared in 2013, 2017 and 2021. In each example, a strong summer period gave way to short-term pullbacks before the uptrend resumed.

Previously in 2025, the company has already closed with a profit of 7.22%. If August continues to be high, the trend could re-develop with a slight decline in September.

Another crypto analyst, Axel, offered a contrasting view focused on market structure rather than seasonality. He tracked the harmonic averages of two metrics: Nupl and MVRV.

In both March and December 2024, these metrics peaked at 1.95 and 1.99, respectively, just before the market correction. The latest reading is at 1.73, forming a lower high.

Holders remain profitable, but many seem to be gradually reducing their risk exposure. The meaning is that while the uptrends may continue, each new high could face stronger sales pressures.

Axel expects two more rallys before the market enters a slower phase marked by lower demand and more stable profit acquisitions.

Taken together, the technical model still points to $166,000, supported by historic cyclical behavior and ongoing ETF demand. However, short-term revisions and macroeconomic changes can affect how the market approaches that level.

Events never unfold as analysts would expect. The crypto market is volatile and momentum can move quickly. Trade wisely and invest more than you can afford to lose.