This is a speculative report translated for non-experts. The narrator is an investigator who arrives long after humans have disappeared. Everything described as measured is dependent on how Bitcoin actually works, including block spacing, difficulty/targets, timestamp rules, and data available from block headers and Coinbase transactions.
We have arrived on a quiet planet. The last clock still ticking was embedded in a ledger whose creator is gone.
Start report
team: Investigation unit 3
artifact: Global Ledger (“Bitcoin”)
Technology: Light chain analysis mapped to solar time (header + coinbase)
method
We analyzed the digital artifact known as Bitcoin using the following identification: block header (timestamp, target/’bits’, version) and for each block. coinbase transaction (height, output value, tag text).
From our last initial review, we constructed the following data points.
- Fee It was treated like this: Coinbase Production Volume – Programmed Subsidy (Fees actually charged by the miner).
- Timestamps are aligned to Earth’s solar day and solar year, and are limited by Bitcoin’s solar calendar. Historical median (MTP) rule.
- evidence of Chip battle (old block) guessed From timing irregularities and MTP edge effects. anywhere Archive old blocks Their survival in isolated nodes supports their duration.
- Difficulty retargeting occurred every time 2016 block and actual timespan It is fixed at 0.25-4x the 2-week goal, meaning that the difficulty change per epoch is limited to a maximum of 0.25x. 4× In either direction.
Survey results
stop payment
ΔH (block before current) was recorded to be ≈ 86,000. This means that Coinbase’s output was equivalent to the planned subsidy. Fee ≈ 0. Over the same interval, the average block spacing settled almost close together. Approximately 60-70 minutes In the long-term average ~65 minutes.
interpretation: Human payments have been suspended. Mechanical publication continued.
Date: 86,000 blocks × approximately 65 minutes ≈ ~10.6 years before we arrive.
power supply timing signature
The arrival of the block after the collapse was not unremembered. Diel and seasonal rhythms encoded unattended power configurations.
- Daytime clusters with nighttime gaps Repeated over low latitudes and longitudes → uninhabited solar There is storage deterioration.
- Irregular bursts of hours interrupted by gaps of several days In mid-latitudes→ wind It failed during a storm and did not reset.
- persistently present throughout the night at some longitudes → small hydro or geothermal Operating on remote islands.
We estimated recurring daytime timestamp clusters to align with local solar noon. longitude band Of the sites that survived. The strength of the seasonal variation in block arrivals led to coarse results latitude zone. Exact site coordinates could not be recovered.
Terrace difficulty level (fade, time specified)
Immediately after the hashrate shock, the average block time decreased from about 10 minutes. time. The difficulty level only retargets each time, so 2016 block And the changes in each era boundeda chain was formed terraceplateaus of approximately constant mean spacing separated by discrete downsteps.
Typical sequences observed in the global ledger:
- Terrace A: ～16-17 hours/block for 2016 block → Progress ~3.8 years.
- Terrace B: ～4.1 hours/block for 2016 block → ~0.95 years.
- Terrace C: ～62-65 minutes/block for 2016 block → Approximately 87-91 days.
- Terrace D: ～15-16 minutes per block for ~22ndthen a new hardware failure occurred and the chain became slow again.
If the residual hashrate is ≈1% Spanning only pre-event terrace A ~3.8 years ~16.7 hours/block. ~in0.1%the same 2016 block epoch is ~38 years old Approximately 167 hours/block, which is within the tuning limits of the protocol. The rhythm in one region matched the case for approximately 16 to 17 hours per block.
How to read terrace (processing calculation):
Epoch length = 2016 blocks. If the observation interval at the plateau is 16.7 hours, then the elapsed time of that epoch ≈ 2016 × 16.7 hours ≈ 3.84 years.
Recorded network decline
When the accurate clock disappears, the miner’s timestamp becomes drifted in a consistent regional pattern. Bitcoin’s medium term plan Although this rule limited timestamp abuse (each new block had to be later than the median of the 11 previous blocks), it did not eliminate drifting signatures.
Advances in Interval Distribution and Clustered MTP Restricted Timestamps Revealed intermittent partition and Chip battle;When any link (satellite, microwave, etc.) is restarted, the competing branches are reconciled and only the winning branch remains canonical.
If no archive of old blocks is kept, the measured contention is lower limit.
A maker mark that has outlived the manufacturer
Coinbase tag string (pool label) and stable nonce/version Fingerprints remained for years after the fee collection activities ended. The default will not change even if the operator disappears, Software/Hardware Family Identifiable on record. (Coinbase tags are visible through coinbase transactions. Headers only do not contain tags.)
Dating major events (actual examples)
- “Payment has been completed.” where is the window Coinbase output = subsidy It started on ΔH ≈ 86,000. Using the observed ~65 minutes/block, we get: ~10.6 years Before the present.
- The first post-shock retargeting was completed. First block reduction of 2016 completed ~3.8 years After hashrate collapse (plateau of approximately 16.7 hours per block).
- Finally detectable hydrocadence. The heavy, almost constant signatures like last night have stopped. ~1.9 years Before the present. The past seven springs have seen an increase in multi-day power outages, coinciding with clogged water intakes and flood damage.
All conversions use observed It’s a segment average, not a nominal 10-minute goal.
Estimated time required (machine uptime)
- Minimum confirmed value: over 10 years After economic activity ceased (from plummeting rates to rhythms like the last hydroelectric generation).
- Possible upper limit (region): for decades Operating at very low hash rates. Single 2016 block epoch Adjustment limits extend to decades.
The only requirements are (a) at least one surviving power source, and (b) an intermittent path for some blocks to reach the global network.
Summary report
Ultimately, the ledger will show when payments stopped, how energy decreased, how the network decayed, and how long unattended machines continued writing, enough to reconstruct the end of the activity from headers and Coinbase alone.
end of report
What should readers take away from this?
- Bitcoin works like a musical instrument. Difficulty rules and timestamp constraints translate physical reality, power availability, operator absence, and network fragmentation into a persistent time series.
- Writing was terminated due to physical failure rather than price. Dust, a clogged screen, a tripped breaker, a clock that’s off, a broken link.
- These forensic techniques still apply today. Block spacing, fee pressure (via Coinbase Delta), timestamp drift, and retargeting dynamics are actionable diagnostic information for current outages and partitions.
limit
- Longitude bands could be estimated. The exact site was not. Latitude was estimated only roughly from the strength of seasonality.
- Fully isolated “shadow mining” could have produced blocks that never reach the global ledger.
- If no archive of old blocks is kept, the contention estimate is: lower limit;Some races leave no canonical traces.
- MTP is primarily saved when time source synchronization fails relative orderingnot exact official time. Long calendar days introduce additional uncertainty, even if the diurnal/seasonal structure is clear.
- In a very low hashrate regime dominated by a single surviving operator, timestamps may be marched within MTP limits, partially masking intraday signatures. Cross-checking using nonce patterns and Coinbase tags will mitigate this, but it cannot eliminate it.
- largely OP_RETURN The payload could not be decoded or interpreted at scale.
(Tag to translate) Bitcoin
