Renowned crypto analyst Ali Martinez has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach $250,000 in the coming weeks if historical trends continue.
This outlook is based on a comparison of Bitcoin’s current monthly price structure and past bull market cycles, specifically the parabolic rises of 2016-2017 and 2020-2021.
In a Nov. 1 X post, Martinez noted that each of these cycles went through a period of consolidation, followed by a strong breakout that coincided with a bullish crossover in the MACD indicator, a popular momentum indicator.
Currently, Bitcoin appears to be trading in a similar pattern, with the MACD histogram turning positive, a signal that historically precedes an explosive growth phase. In the 2016 cycle, Bitcoin soared more than 4,000%, while the 2020 bull market saw it rise nearly 1,500%.
If this pattern repeats, Martinez suggests Bitcoin could reflect its exponential movement and reach $250,000 by December.
Such a move would require extraordinary momentum and a macro environment similar to previous peaks, including sustained institutional inflows and renewed retail enthusiasm, especially as Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase near $110,000 in November.
Has BTC price reached its peak?
In fact, Bitcoin’s recent stall has given rise to speculation that Bitcoin may have already reached the peak of the current cycle. But insights from crypto trader Ted Pillows cast doubt on that notion.
In a Nov. 1 X post, Pillows said that in past cycles, Bitcoin typically hit new all-time highs after a halving event, followed by a rapid, euphoric rally and a sharp correction of 60% to 70%.
But this time, the story is changing. Bitcoin hit its first all-time high before its halving in 2024, and the upward trend since then has been more stable than previous explosive cycles.
The cryptocurrency also took nearly six months to break above the $100,000 level, a move that is not typical of a blown ceiling, where prices typically spike and then collapse quickly, Pillows said. He argued that prolonged integration suggests stronger structural foundations and continued institutional accumulation.
While analysts acknowledge the possibility of a pullback, Pillows argues that traditional post-peak patterns may not hold true. He noted that the current settings represent a different market environment than previous cycles.
Bitcoin price analysis
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $111,076, up nearly 1% in the past 24 hours but down about 2% on a weekly basis.
At current levels, Bitcoin is comfortably above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of $114,247 and holds a premium above this key support level, indicating near-term bullish momentum.
However, it remains below the 200-day SMA of $105,861, reflecting a long-term bearish trend and potential vulnerability to a significant pullback if momentum weakens.
Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 46.37, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, suggesting that a sideways consolidation is likely in the short term unless a decisive trigger emerges.
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