Bitcoin has had an incredible year that began after the 2024 US presidential election and culminated with a surge to an all-time high of over $126,000 in early October. The asset also hovered in the six-digit price range for several consecutive months and enjoyed healthy demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs along with mixed adoption.
However, the landscape after the aforementioned new peak was completely different. The price has fallen more than 30% and is well below $90,000 at the time of writing. As a result, sentiment has turned mostly bearish, with many analysts calling for the start of a new phase. However, Merlin the Trader sees things differently.
breaking news:
This is not a crash.
It’s a coil.Raul Pal wrote it this way:
The old four-year halving cycle is over.
We are in a liquidity-driven supercycle.For 15 years, the script was simple.
Reduced by half. supply shock. Retail mania. top. winter.It ended up with over $125 billion in ETFs… pic.twitter.com/zlwY1jQ5Lv
— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) December 19, 2025
Will not crash even when coiled
Merlein cited a recent interview with Raul Pal, who claimed that the four-year cycle story is over and BTC is now driven by liquidity, which explains 90% of its price movements, and explained that the asset’s infancy is over, when ETFs, sovereigns, and macro funds turned Bitcoin into a global commodity.
They also pointed out that it is aimed at trading liquidity, not calendars, and outlined important changes planned for next year.
– Bottoming out of the business cycle
– Fiscal stimulus load
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– Global Money Printer Warm-up
– Agencies forced to pursue
Merlein concluded that the correction is no longer the end of the bull market, but rather called it a “slingshot.” As a result, he warned traders that they need to adapt to the new BTC cycle version.
“Trade as if it were an old cycle that no longer exists.
Or the position of an exponential curve that has already begun to move. ”
$600,000 in 2026?
Given the price movements of the past few months, it is difficult to predict a significant price increase in 2026. But pseudonymous analyst Wise Crypto recently did just that, highlighting an eye-popping target of up to $600,000 next year if all the pieces come together for the perfect crypto storm.
These include the end of the Fed’s much-anticipated quantitative tightening, further rate cuts, improved short-term liquidity through Treasury support, and the US midterm election cycle, all of which should tilt in favor of risk assets.
