Most of Crypto is as elusive as the concept of “Altcoin season.” Traditionally, the term referred to a standard 2-3 month short window (usually 2-3 months) following a Bitcoin (BTC) price rally. The pattern took place in the 2015-2018 cycle and the 2019-2022 cycle, but there is no ruling yet as to whether the current bull market has won the Altcoin season.
Blockchain Centre defines the Altcoin season as a period in which 75% of the top 50 Altcoins outperform Bitcoin in a 90-day time frame. The AltSeason Index registered a rise again in March 2024 and January 2025, but neither of them lasted long enough to qualify as a full-fledged AltSeason.
Altcoin season index. Source: Blockchain Center
Some analysts claim that Memecoin has increased liquidity from the wider Altcoin market. Others condemn the oversaturation of crypto investment products, especially ETFs, respond to institutions, and spotlight only the largest Altcoins. The third explanation requires a deeper rethinking what Altcoins are indeed. In this view, Altcoins are recognized as a unified asset class, but are a diverse collection of crypto assets with a variety of features, value structures and growth potential.
MemeCoins stole the spotlight
For Crypto Analyst Miles Deutscher, the launch of Pump.Fun is directly correlated with the Altcoin market and the destruction of BTC.
“The reason we didn’t see any major “alto seasons” across the majors is that speculative capital once poured into the top 200 assets has instead decided to jump over the guns and flood the on-chain low caps. ”
Deutscher says early birds and insiders are getting insanely rich from now on, but most retail investors who came in late have been lost. This was also true in previous Altcoin cycles. However, unlike 2022, when losses were limited to CEX Altcoins, which had mainly solid fluidity, they were stuck on liquid-free on-chain meme coins, quickly reaching 70%-80%. This led to a “more wealth destruction event in early 2022 than the bear (Luna is another)” despite BTC (and some majors) still being trending in macrobull.
Solana TVL vs Top 125 ALT (excluding Top 10). Source: Miles Deutscher
US politics added fuel to the Memocoin craze. For example, President Donald Trump’s Mimecoin general president sparked momentum, but the outcome was quickly disappointing. Trump and Melania tokens have respectively dropped 83% and 95% since their launch at the end of January, offering another hit to retail sentiment.
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Institutional investors and ETFs have shifted tide
Another factor affecting the strength of the current bull market Altcoin season was the arrival of Wall Street. The launch of the Spot Bitcoin ETF in January 2024 resulted in an influx of $129 billion as investors rushed to familiar structures with custody, regulation and easy access. BlackRock’s IBIT became the dominant vehicle, and in July 2024, the introduction of the ETF option added even more depth.
Some analysts believe the safety and scalability of Spot BTC ETFs has sucked up capital away from speculative assets. Options and the ability to hedge the future significantly reduces the incentive to gamble on altcoins with low illiquid capacity.
However, this explanation has limitations. Crypto is not a zero-sum market. With global liquidity increasing, capital entering the space can flow in many directions. If anything, institutional demand could potentially expand the total crypto pie.
Additionally, some altcoins already have ETFs. According to Coinglass, Spot Ether ETFS debuted in July 2024 and has since registered a modest net inflow of $565,000. Such a dramatic difference in scale with spot BTC ETFs suggests that the ETF structure alone is not sufficient. Investor convictions remain important.
Altcoin features and its meetings have become even more subtle
The term “altcoin” emerged when non-bitcoin tokens were novel. However, in today’s ecosystems, the term summarises very different assets, such as blockchain native coins, governance tokens, stubcoins, members, dap tokens, and real-world asset protocol tokens, each of which includes different features and investor profiles. Just as it makes no sense to group gold, Nvidia inventory, and US dollars into a single index of traditional finance, it makes little sense to treat all Altcoins as one unified category.
A closer look at the price action supports this idea. According to Coingecko data, the main categories of Altcoin are forked sharply through this cycle. Real World Assets (RWA) tokens have skyrocketed 15 times. In contrast, GameFi lost half its market capitalization. This shows that the story plays a growing role in driving investor capital allocation decisions.
Market capitalization of the crypto category. Source: Coingecko
Even core blockchain tokens are beginning to specialize. Ethereum is still a defi hub. Solana rules over memochine. Tron is currently second in Stablecoin transfers. Immutablex carries out the territory of the game field. In both cases, token performance is increasingly linked to ecological activity. This might want to abandon the term “Altseason” and to pay more attention to certain stories within the crypto space.
Altcoins are no longer running as a pack. This may be the biggest signal of how the crypto market is mature.
