Bitcoin rebounds from $103,000 following geopolitical volatility. ETF influx and 180 days of OI delta flip suggest a potential local bottom.
Amidst rising tensions in the Middle East, a surge in crypto market volatility has led to Bitcoin falling below $104,000. However, a bullish rebound from a key support trend line led to BTC surpassing the $105,000 mark.
Can this short-term recovery and derivatives market signal show a local bottom and drive Bitcoin to a new swing high?
Bitcoin price analysis
In the four-hour price list, Bitcoin shows a bullish failure that failed to maintain momentum after temporarily surpassing $108,000. On Tuesday, BTC test levels fell below $103,000.
However, the long core of the priced candle reflects strong purchasing pressure, which will raise Bitcoin from the local support trend line. Currently, BTC is trading above the $105,000 level, suggesting a possible reversal of trends.
However, technical indicators provide mixed signals. The MACD and signal lines face down below the zero line. Meanwhile, RSI shows a temporary surge in bullish momentum, approaching mid-level levels.
Bitcoin’s immediate resistance was $107,015, with its recent peak at $108,681.
Bitcoin ETFs accumulate in the context of turbulent markets
Despite the decline in Bitcoin prices, institutional support continues to be strengthened. According to SoSovalue data, the US Bitcoin Spot ETF has recorded a positive influx for six consecutive days.
On June 17th, daily net inflow reached $226.48 million, led by BlackRock’s $639.19 million. This inflow offset flows outflow from three main ETFs. 2008.46 million fidelity, ARK of $191.4 million and 21 shares, and bitwise of $2284 million.
As of June 17th, the total net assets held in US Bitcoin Spot ETFs reached $1281.8 billion, accounting for 6.18% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
180 days oi delta turns red and informs local bottom
Amidst an increasing number of institutional activities, a recent tweet from cryptographic data analytics platform, Alphractal, highlights the 180-day open interest (OI) has become negative. This indicates that more leverage positions have been closed than they have opened in the past six months.
The biggest contributor to this decline is -$7.42 billion and CME Bitget. In contrast, Gate.io stands out with an increase of $3.2 billion, showing operational counters on most other platforms.
Historically, negative OI deltas have often coincident with local bottoms.
In 2021, the metrics were turned red as Bitcoin was traded between 31k and $41,000. Similarly, in 2023 and 2024, negative OI deltas were consistent with local bottom formations.
However, there are exceptions. In 2022, a sharp decline in OI was the deepest point in the bear market.
Essentially, if OI Delta gets positive again, it could be a bullish reversal. However, if reductions continue, it may refer to continuous shortcoming pressures.
