On average, stock prices of companies associated with accumulated digital assets are down nearly 60% from their 2025 highs. That’s a setback that gives investors an opportunity to get in on the action, according to analysis firm Bernstein.
In a note sent to clients this Monday, March 31, 2026, analysts led by Gautam Chughani noted that “geopolitics is putting a bid in the stocks of crypto companies.”
The report claims that Geopolitical tensions and digital asset market weakness combine to put pressure on valuationseven as these companies continue to expand in areas such as stablecoins, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization, prediction markets, and derivatives.
On the geopolitical front, as CriptoNoticias explained, one of the causes of the current tensions is the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, an important route through which 20% of the world’s oil production passes. The situation, a product of the war between the United States, Israel and Iran, has fueled fears of disruptions to international energy supplies and new pressure on oil prices.
Meanwhile, at the macroeconomic level, the US Federal Reserve (FED) decided to keep interest rates on hold, reinforcing the idea that monetary policy will remain restrictive for a longer period of time. This situation does not benefit assets considered at risk and also hurts the Bitcoin (BTC) ecosystem and stocks exposed to digital assets.
Since October 2025, the market has experienced a severe correction. Bitcoin currently sits at around $66,600, down about 47% from its all-time high of around $126,000.
Despite this scenario, Bernstein believes valuations reflect short-term pessimism rather than an actual deterioration in fundamentals. In that sense, The company claims that the stock prices of companies in the crypto industry could bottom out before the earnings season in Q1 2026.is scheduled for late April or early May, but we hope the numbers will reflect a still weak situation in the short term.
In this context, Bernstein maintained his positive recommendation on Coinbase, Robinhood, and Figures, although he lowered his price targets.
For Coinbase (COIN), we lowered our forecast to $330 from $440 in a scenario where trading volumes may be weak in the near term.
However, the company projects sustained revenue growth. Mainly driven by stablecoin business (if the company captures a relevant portion of USDC revenue) and by expanding its derivative products and services. At the time of publishing this article, COIN is trading at $160.
In the case of financial platform Robinhood, the price target was lowered from $160 to $130. Bernstein identifies prediction markets as one of the key drivers of growth. could account for around 10% of revenue by 2026.
Additionally, it emphasizes diversification into income sources that are less dependent on market fluctuations, such as loans, subscriptions, and financial services.
Figure, a financial technology company, Maintains positive recommendation with $67 targetIt was slightly lower than last time. The company is seen as betting directly on the RWA industry, with a low correlation between its revenue and Bitcoin price.
The central point of the analysis is that markets can overreact to short-term weakness. For this reason, Bernstein argues that: Stock declines primarily respond to macroeconomic factors and deteriorating sentimentRather than a structural change in the business model.
In that sense, the company believes valuations have corrected faster than fundamentals, giving room for those betting on the sector’s recovery towards the end of 2026.
However, this view relies on the current cooling being temporary. Confirmation will be released alongside first-quarter results and will help test whether the decline in revenue and activity is temporary or the beginning of a further economic slowdown.
Bernstein, meanwhile, stands his ground. This sector is experiencing a downturn; However, the company believes it remains exposed to an expanding market, which justifies its positive long-term vision.
(Tag Translate) Coinbase
