Bhutan adopts Ethereum as national digital ID

Ethereum price today is trading around $4,102, down 3.3% in the past 24 hours as sellers test the $4,080 to $4,100 support zone. This pullback comes after resistance at $4,260 was rejected earlier in the week, but buyers continue to hold onto the long-term uptrend line that has been driving ETH higher since April. The focus now shifts to whether this structural support can be maintained amidst cooling on-chain flows and headlines of new adoption.

Ethereum Price Retest Critical Support Zone

On the daily chart, Ethereum is still in a broad uptrend structure, but the recent pullback has brought it closer to an important decision point. The price is hovering around the 50-day EMA of $4,246 and the 100-day EMA of $3,978, both of which have converged on multi-month trendline support. Immediate resistance lies at $4,254, with supply strengthening between $4,540 and $4,550 and a bearish reversal of the supertrend indicator.

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A sustained close below $4,080 could surface deeper downside targets at $3,900 and $3,540, while a break above the current demand zone could stabilize momentum. Although RSI readings close to neutral levels reflect a cooling phase, the broader structure remains trending constructive as long as $3,540 support holds.

On-chain flows highlight continued outflows

According to exchange data from Coinglass, Ethereum recorded net outflows of $112.45 million on October 14, indicating slow accumulation despite volatility. This follows weeks of mixed currency activity, with frequent inflows during periods of rising prices and sharp outflows during periods of falling prices.

Although net flows remain negative, analysts say this trend suggests that long-term holders are withdrawing their ETH into cold storage, indicating continued confidence. However, the lack of a significant surge in inflows also highlights the decline in speculative demand in the short term. Traders remain focused on whether future institutional catalysts will reignite momentum, especially as staking participation increases.

Bhutan anchors national digital identity on Ethereum

In a major foundational development, Bhutan has confirmed that its national digital identity platform will fully migrate to the Ethereum blockchain by early 2026. The project, originally built on Cardano’s IOG, will now anchor its credentials on Ethereum, allowing citizens to verify personal attributes through decentralized identifiers tied to the network’s verification infrastructure.

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin hailed the move as a milestone in public blockchain adoption, emphasizing the empowerment of citizens through self-sovereign digital identities. This development follows recent efforts around energy markets, tokenized treasuries, and stablecoin payments, and reinforces Ethereum’s growing role in national infrastructure.

Analysts peg fair value at $8,000 to $10,000.

Market strategist Ted Pillows reiterated his bullish stance, saying Ethereum could “catch up to the money supply M2” in the fourth quarter. He expected fair value to be between $8,000 and $10,000 by Q1 2026, supported by institutional bids, staking approvals, and liquidity rotation from other layer 1 assets. His post, which compared the global M2 expansion to ETH’s price performance, gained attention among traders who see Ethereum as a macro hedge in tight liquidity cycles.

This macro-driven story is consistent with Ethereum’s long-term Wyckoff accumulation pattern, where each cycle correction has historically preceded a sharp recovery. If macro liquidity improves in the fourth quarter, speculative and institutional demand could reignite as Ethereum aligns with global financial growth.

Outlook: Will Ethereum Rise?

Ethereum’s outlook for mid-October remains cautiously optimistic. A pullback to a trendline is seen as a natural consolidation phase within an ongoing cycle. On-chain outflows indicate long-term accumulation, and the Bhutan consolidation adds a strong adoption layer to the Ethereum story.

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If ETH stabilizes above $4,000, analysts see room for a recovery towards $4,550 and $4,800 in future trades. However, a loss of that threshold will delay the rally and test buyers’ confidence near $3,540. For now, Ethereum remains a pivotal asset that balances structural support and new global demand.