Bitcoin’s price range attracted attention as it reached an important half-cycle midpoint. Traded nearly $80,460 at the time of press, BTC shows small daily profits despite volatility (down 4.47% per week), but analysts remain optimistic over the coming months.
Historically, this stage (approximately 7 months after harving) often marks the beginning of an important BTC bull run. Previous cycles have witnessed strong gatherings from this stage, sparking new expectations that Bitcoin could soon test it and exceed its all-time high.
Planb’s S2F model is still targeting $500,000 + Bitcoin: How does it work?
Stock-to-flow (S2F) modeller PlanB says Bitcoin is on track due to a dramatic surge by the second half of 2025, targeting more than $500,000 based on rarity metrics and time-based analysis. His chart uses red dots for half the period and blue dots to space them (As shown in his tweet below).
7 months (6 months before half – 18 months after half) – Period: 7more🔴pic.twitter.com/j4qriy796c
– Planb (@100trillionusd) April 10, 2025
Based on S2F positioning, Bitcoin may soon challenge historic resistance (60k-$100K). This model shows strong long-term support ($10k-$30k) buffering for fixes.
Is Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle dead? Analysts point out the maturity of the market
Beyond technology, market sentiment is changing. A recent Bitcoin Archives poll shows that almost half of respondents doubt that the traditional four-year cycle is still being applied.
Analyst Chris Barriske agrees by arguing that the crypto market is mature beyond these fixed patterns. He believes that blockchain has evolved into a core digital infrastructure and will reshape investors’ behaviour and expectations.
Higher or lower? How ETFS & Tech crashes Bitcoin
Institutional demand may support higher price floors at BTC/ETH ETFS Live (Solana Mayce Next). Burniske suggests that an extreme 85-95% drawdown is unlikely to be a top asset.
Bitcoin’s 200-week SMA (approximately $40,000) continues to serve as reliable, long-term support. Set the cycle bottom to 60% drawdown. Not more serious than past crashes (Point Barisuke explained in detail in his tweet).
We continue to believe that there is a high probability of breaking the simple four-year cycle of $BTC celebrating the past 12 years. If that happens, most people will find themselves continuing their future appointments in a short-term view. But to buy that paper, you have to believe in blockchain…pic.twitter.com/jzzabreyu
– Chris Barriske (@cburniske) January 15, 2025
The “Goldilocks” era or the unfolding phase? What will be next for Bitcoin growth?
Furthermore, the preferred US regulatory conditions could lead the “Goldilocks” era of digital assets.
Analysts forecast stable growth over the next few years, with less volatility but more sustainable returns. Some people refer to the Carlota Perez framework and think that Crypto is moving from its volatile “installation” phase to a wider adoption “deployment” phase.
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