I am currently studying the situation with Bitcoin (BTC). Digital assets are feeling the impact of global macroeconomic decisions as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs unleashed significant volatility in financial markets.
Generally different inventory and market indicators are suffering from unseen falls since the fateful 2020 of the Covid-19 pandemic. Example is the S&P 500 on Monday, June 9th He was trying to register his worst performance in three dayssomething that hasn’t been seen since 1987, but at the end of the day he recovered.
Another example is oil, The price is at least 5 years agothis could respond to supply issues, but there is no demand. In any case, financial markets are generally restless, and uncertainty controls the conversation.
In fact, before the Trump tariff topic began, Bitcoin had already shown some bearish signs. Last week only, the UTXO band (unused or unused transaction output) suggested a bearish reversal. These bands used in the analysis of the Bitcoin network, They assess market trends and investor behavior.
This happens, but the Bitcoin chain rate remains low, falling below USD 1 at all priority levels. Additionally, members virtually have no blocks to process by miners, as seen in the following mempool.space graph.
To all this, we add that the net flows to funds cited in the stock market (ETF), but they are mixed, They register falls from the biggest pointas seen in this Sosovalue graphics. This pushes the price of BTC to fall from time to time.
This all shows it At this point things seem a little depressingaccording to Christopher Bendixen, head of Bitcoin Market Research at Coinshares Analytics Company. However, we maintain this upward perspective of 2025.
Where does it come from?
At the time, BTC peaked at 2017 to 20,000 US$, then fell deeply 85% in 2018, then to 3,000 US$. Then, in 2019, rumors began to spread about the possibility of a Bitcoin ETF approval in cash. It recovered at US$14,000 in the middle of the year. He then backed up when the ETF was rejected. “We’ll be cool for several months and surround USD 10,000 as we enter 2020,” he recalled.
In addition to its performance in Bitcoin, other scenarios were given in the macroeconomic world. The yield curve was invested, the rest of the auctions failed, and economic growth was poor And the fear of a recession is at the forefront of the world.
Furthermore, interest rates rose for the first time in months, and the market is unstable, and in turn Actions were generally close or historical maximums.
Above all, this scenario took a break from BTC and began to correlate with macroeconomic events. However, analysts suggested that he ended up driving Bitcoin five years ago was optimistic and speculation.
“We felt that the market at the time was very driven by the policy and desire of large tickets from new market participants. We were eager to see the flow of capital for the ETF. Optimism was justified given how much the market was filmed after the gates opened last year.”
Christopher Bendiksen, research from Bitcoin Market Chief Analysis Company Coinshares.
What’s coming?
Now in 2025, I feel the situation is unsettlingly similar to 2020Bresen points out that he remembers that, like he did five years ago, there is a rather uncertain macroeconomic panorama.
Interest rates have risen much more than that, at levels not seen in decades. Inflation has devastated the economy around the world, and Germany has been in a recession for years. Furthermore, Eastern Europe has a massive war, costing hundreds of millions of dollars. Despite all this, the stock exchange behavior was at its historic maximum, “occasing tantrums from time to time,” the researchers suggest.
“Here we surfed the ETF’s royal wave towards a new historic maximum. Then President Donald Trump arrives with a nearly incredible Vitocoin administration. Suddenly there is hope for the US BTC National Reserve. For the early Bitcoiner, that’s not unrealistic.”
Christopher Bendiksen, research from Bitcoin Market Chief Analysis Company Coinshares.
To him, this means “the huge demand of the deepest pocket in the world.” Nation. “If game theory on absolute shortage develops, it could trigger a career to accumulate coins between sovereign countries,” he said.
It’s a vision that Bitcoiner and CEO of Strategy disagrees with, but it’s a company that BTC accumulates and quotes in the stock market. According to the businessman, there is only room for the state to buy Bitcoin, and that’s the US.
Anyway, Bendixen argues that nation-states will inject the kind of flow that could raise BTC to challenge money as the biggest independent global value warehouse.
So far, 527,764 Bitcoin, equivalent to 2.51% of the total supply of BTC, is in the hands of different governments around the world. These include those from the US, China, the UK, Ukraine, North Korea, El Salvador, Butane, Venezuela and Finland.
In some of these countries, BTC is a reserve asset. And in general, it is a story that has gained so much popularity in recent weeks. In fact, there are analysts who suggest that the market is at a stage where hard assets like gold and BTC are all visible in digital currencies. Potentially reaching USD 150,000as reported by Cryptootics.
A true upward market?
Bendixen recalled that after the economic collapse in 2020, the country’s central banks were forced to step in and “use the only real tool they have.” Money printer.
The scenario is similar in 2025 as great economies are already preparing to start broadcasting money from China, Germany and other European countries. For the analyst, united states of america“If the rate has already dropped for a while and it is clear that it is intent to take on more stimuli.”
“It’s no secret that Trump wants to turn on the printer as soon as possible,” the analyst said. “But Powell doesn’t seem to be willing to bite the hook. If Trump’s tactics break the market and Powell flickers, I don’t think it will work, as the Fed is based on economic data that has some seniority when it reaches the desk,” he continued.
Therefore, Bendixen argues that “the market is already anticipating four year-end interest rate cuts before Trump’s position 2.” This means enhancing the imminent financial impression.
For Bitcoin, at least this is a positive. In 2020, after global money printers were lit up (and after global liquidity increased), “a true upward market began and peaked in 2021 with a new historic maximum,” he recalls.
This is because Bitcoin continues closely with global financial liquidity (M2 Global), with a delay of around 90 days. And as you can see in this graph below, Global M2 has started to rise again After signing a contract in the second half of 2024.
Don’t forget that excessive liquidity usually pushes investors to seek shelter against inflation. In that respect, Bitcoin has emerged as an ideal candidate in his digital gold story. It could affect prices, as we have seen already between 2020 and 2021.
For analysts, “If Bitcoin prices continue to remain globally liquid as they did in the last three years, we could face a healthy rebound.”
Irregular cycle
In fact, the cycles Bitcoin lived in were “very irregular” and not similar to the peaks of 2017 and 2021, analysts believe. It’s pretty similar to the performance in 2019. According to what the UTXO band suggests.
If that’s wrong, the market is at the gate of bassist reversal, so a big drop is predictable Until organic demand finds a price balance. “That would probably mean a lower price of at least USD 60,000, and perhaps even lower,” he said.
Now, if you’re right, the move that Bitcoin had recently been re-mayor in the market Driven by the net capital stream of ETFsadded to speculative bets to unequivocal sovereignty flows.
“This is completely different from the simple money market of the previous two cycles. If what comes is another important macroeconomic period of low prices and money printing, then the actual upward market may not have started properly,” he said.
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