Bitcoin fell 1.8% to about $69,400 on Thursday as oil prices soared above $100 a barrel. This move made it clear that major cryptocurrencies cannot serve as a safe haven during the Iran war.
While the short-term pain is clear, the long-term picture is more complex. Fed policy, war money printing, and increased reliance on cryptocurrencies by sanctioned countries all demand attention.
Oil shock overwhelms record SPR release
Brent crude rose more than 9% on Thursday to $101.59. Baghdad has suspended operations at its oil port after two tankers collided in Iraqi territorial waters. Bahrain reported Iranian attacks on fuel tanks. Oman evacuated ships from the important Mina al-Fakhar export terminal.
#Breaking News: Oil tanker collided near Iraq’s Umm Qasr port. Plumes of smoke and fire can be seen rising from the ship, which is on the verge of being completely destroyed. #Iran #Israel #USA pic.twitter.com/2R8vTBKTnD
— Peregraf (@PeregrafNews) March 11, 2026
The attack came hours after the IEA announced the largest ever emergency reserve release of 400 million barrels. The United States is contributing 172 million barrels. The market ignored this move.
“Dumping barrels from the emergency stockpile is more of a symbolic action than a solution,” said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management.
Polymarket currently predicts an 82% chance that oil will reach $100 by the end of March, an increase of 40 points. The $95 contract is 94%. Even above $110, the probability is over 60%, with more than half of the market expecting triple-digit oil prices to continue.
Bitcoin tracks risk assets, not gold
Bitcoin has not been able to be decoupled from stocks since the Iran war began on February 28th. Bitcoin fell sideways and was unable to sustain the $74,000 level it reached in the first week of the war.
Bitcoin is currently down 47% from its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025.
The transmission mechanism is simple. Rising oil prices fuel inflation expectations and delay the timeline for rate cuts. This limits the liquidity required for Bitcoin to rise. Traders currently expect the Fed to cut interest rates just once this year.
For cryptocurrencies, oil movements are more important than geopolitics itself. If oil continues to rise above $80, the prospect of re-inflation is solidified and hopes of a rate cut are dampened. In addition to supply disruptions, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will have an additional impact on shipping costs.
ETF flows suggest institutional investor accumulation
Despite Bitcoin’s lackluster price movements, institutional investors appear to be quietly accumulating funds. SoSoValue data shows the US Spot Bitcoin ETF recorded net inflows for the third consecutive day. Tally: $167 million on March 9th, $250.92 million on March 10th, and $115.17 million on March 11th. That totals $533 million. Cumulative net inflows reached $55.9 billion.
This streak of outflows is a reversal of the daily outflows of $348 million and $228 million on March 6 and 5, suggesting that financial institutions are viewing the war-induced decline as a buying opportunity.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas noted on X that the ETF holds a total of 1.28 million BTC. This makes them the world’s largest holder despite a 50% drawdown. Year-to-date inflows are about to turn positive, with cumulative lifetime net inflows of approximately $56 billion.
Still, the overall picture is grim. According to SoSoValue, Bitcoin ETFs saw about $4.5 billion in outflows from late January to late February. While recent inflows are encouraging, they have not yet reversed the trend.
what to see
In the short term: core of friday The PCE statistics are expected to be 0.4% month-on-month, and the Fed may become more hawkish. Oil above $80 will delay rate cuts. Delay in interest rate cuts will deplete Bitcoin liquidity.
In the long run: All major U.S. wars since 1990 eventually caused the Fed to ease. War spending funded by deficits expands the supply of dollars. If history repeats itself, the current pain could precede a financial tailwind for risk assets.
Sanctions and cryptocurrencies: The war has deepened the reliance of sanctioned countries on cryptocurrencies. According to Elliptic, Iran’s central bank held more than $507 million in USDT before the strike. Russia’s A7A5 stablecoin moved $93.3 billion in less than a year. FATF’s March 3 report found that 84% of illegal cryptocurrencies are circulated through stablecoins. That infrastructure will outlast wars.
Bitcoin remains a liquidity tool, not a crisis hedge. An open question is whether war money printing will ultimately change this situation.
The post Bitcoin dips below $70,000 as crude oil tops $100 — Next thing to note appeared first on BeInCrypto.
