Currently, more than 160 publicly traded companies have adopted Bitcoin as a core financial strategy, and together they hold nearly 1 million BTC, representing about 4% of the circulating supply. What started as a bold experiment by one company has turned into a global strategy to raise capital, buy Bitcoin, and offer partial equity exposure to Bitcoin through a public offering. These stocks trade based on their ability to deliver Bitcoin per share rather than earnings or cash flow, and most companies achieve market capitalizations in excess of 1x net asset value, or currently known as (“mNAV”). The question now is not whether the BTC Treasury model can be implemented, but what happens next in terms of risks and opportunities.
The First Age — From Narrative to Reproduction
The opening chapter of Bitcoin Finance Company was defined by narrative and replication. Michael Saylor (née MicroStrategy)’s Strategy showed that you can turn a software business into a $100 billion agent for Bitcoin by raising equity at a premium to NAV, converting it to BTC, and never selling it.
The template has spread from Tokyo’s Metaplanet to US healthcare company Semler Scientific to London’s Smart Web Company. However, storytelling and BTC holdings alone may not be enough to maintain a premium multiple. For this model to survive adolescence, companies may need to justify NAV multiples above one in a more durable way.
The next step for Bitcoin finance companies
Lever 1: Yield as an edge
Just as REITs have matured from landlords to yield machines, Bitcoin treasury companies will need to prove they can incrementally generate Bitcoin per share, rather than just keep them on the stack.
This could be achieved through BTC-backed loans, Lightning infrastructure, or new financial products that allow you to monetize your balance sheet holdings. For example, locking up BTC to Lightning payment channels allows BTC holders to collect fees for providing this liquidity, potentially earning yield. However, all yield strategies involve risks, including credit risk and counterparty risk, which must be considered and managed. Without a yield engine, dilution could eventually catch up and compress mNAV towards 1.
Lever 2: Leverage (risk weighting)
The winners of the last bear market were not the companies with the largest balance sheets, but the companies that structured their capital to survive forced liquidations. Some BTC finance companies are currently considering the relative value of pledging BTC as collateral for BTC-backed loans financed in USD. This USD can be deployed as the company sees fit, for example to earn yield or buy additional Bitcoin. However, this type of activity requires rigorous risk management, cash flow and scenario modeling. Leverage amplifies your reflexive flywheel, but it requires discipline. This means they should only be raised at a premium, never raised against hard collateral, and held to maturity long enough to ride the cycle.
Lever 3: Complementary business models
A third avenue is to offer complementary business models, or “grab picks” of the Bitcoin economy. Some Bitcoin treasury companies are already working on infrastructure businesses such as data centers, decentralized AI computing, Bitcoin-native software, and business services.
This dual model allows you to transform from pure NAV arbitrage to a platform with operating cash flow. In doing so, they could become a growth story for stocks rather than just a stand-in for Bitcoin. There are parallels with how dot-com era companies like Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook eventually grew into the technology giant infrastructure providers of today. This often includes companies with large amounts of cash.
Toward specialization and institutionalization
The recursive phase of the Bitcoin financial model is coming to an end. As the flywheel slows, companies are specializing in their Bitcoin treasury strategies, designing capital stacks for resilience, and perhaps developing business lines that generate Bitcoin yield without diluting their per-share exposure and connect them to broader digital asset infrastructure.
Successful companies could justify a continued premium above NAV and institutionalize their shareholder base to become on par with Bitcoin-native REITs, tech giants, and energy giants. There is a risk that those who remain static may become irrelevant and potentially trade on the stock market like a closed-end fund with no growth.
The next game — beyond buying Bitcoin
The next game is probably not to buy Bitcoin. That playbook has already been written. It’s about building a financial architecture to keep mNAV above 1 every cycle.
The companies that crack the code are more than just Bitcoin agents. They could become the equity layer of a new monetary system.
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects the author’s views at the time of writing. This does not constitute financial advice, investment research, or a solicitation for any investment activity. References to Bitcoin, corporate strategies, and publicly traded companies are for illustrative purposes only.
Greengage & Co. Limited is not authorized by the Financial Conduct Authority to offer investment, virtual currency trading or regulated lending services. This content is for informational purposes only and is intended primarily for an institutional or professional audience and not for individual investors.
Cryptoassets and related investments are high risk. You may lose all your invested funds. These products are not protected by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) or the Financial Ombudsman Service (FOS).
