Despite the sustained decline, Bitcoin has yet to witness a reset in its profit structure like the market witnessed in past bear markets.
Bitcoin ($BTC) April began with a slow rebound, rising 3% in the past 24 hours and once again above the $68,000 level. Despite this short-term strength, the broader trend is still points downward, showing that market remains Under pressure.
Data in a downtrend show Bitcoin’s profit structure has not yet been established passed by The type of reset seen in past bear markets. Especially in the early cycles, prices had to fall further before the market fully recovered.
Important points
- Bitcoin is up 3% in 24 hours and trading above $68,000, but the overall downtrend still dominates the market.
- The 365-day average profitability remains high at 87.5%, indicating that a complete recovery is not yet in sight.t.
- In the past cycle, the long-term average has fallen to 63.8%., Before the revenue structure is reset played out.
- April brings historically high returns, but in the past, bear market conditions have caused returns to decline.
- According to the data, Bitcoin may need to fall below the realized price of $54,000 before reaching the true bottom of the market.
Bitcoin profitability indicators show incomplete reset
CryptoQuant Analyst Axel Adler Jr. revealed This is one of his recent analyses. In particular, he said that as of April 1, 2026; $BTC The coin’s return has risen to 66.4%, while the 30-day moving average remains at 69.1%.
However, the more important long-term indicator, the 365-day moving average (365DMA), Not yet High at 87.5%; set Current situation away From past bear market resets.
Adler noted that SMA365 helped him see a complete reset in the early cycles. Specifically, after reaching 96-97% at the end of 2017, it steadily declined and fell to 63.8% in May 2019. This rapid decline showed what the market had passed by be deep correction rear bull running It’s finished.
Things are different this time. nevertheless short term data show While weak, SMA365 remains close to 87.5%; it suggests The market is not yet full Surrender stage.
Bitcoin’s drawdown is severe, but it maintains its long-term strength
Mr. Adler also compared the current economic downturn to the recession earlier this period. In particular, the September 2023 and September 2024 markets are weakened Although short-term profitability improved, it was unable to beat the long-term average.
The drawdown in 2026 has progressed even further. This metric has already fallen to 55.7%; 30DMA It dropped to 66.7%. Nevertheless, SMA365 is still significantly above levels seen during past resets. and this shows A deeper, long-term reset is not happened still.
This led Adler to conclude that the market is under intense pressure and profitability is shrinking. However, as long as the 365DMA remains around 87.5%, the current phase looks more like a long-term correction with frequent price fluctuations than a full bear market reset.
Bitcoin is still in crisis
Meanwhile, market watcher Aldi recently said: discussed Bitcoin seasonal trends. He noted that since 2014, April has been the third-best month after October and July, with an average return of 9.1% and a win rate of 67%.
However, he acknowledged that market conditions are important. He says 2026 is a bear market year that will change how investors view these seasonal patterns. Especially not with strong past performance. average Prices rise when the overall trend changes Not yet weak.
He gave examples to support this. In 2014, Bitcoin fell by 2% in April and by 18.7% in 2022. April 2018 saw a 35.7% rally, but this was just a sharp rebound in a bear market, not the start of a new cycle.
Elsewhere, CryptoQuant analyst Tugce stressed that despite the economic downturn, Bitcoin is still trading at much higher levels. realized pricecurrently $54,000.
She explained that in every major bear market, Bitcoin falls below its realized price before reaching its true bottom. Based on this, she I can see it $54,000 important The level at which buyers may intervene. But he warned that prices could fall well below this level and remain there for some time before recovering.
