Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to recover from the sharp decline it experienced in October and November. With Bitcoin moving within a narrow range and trying to find direction, all eyes are on today’s Fed decision, a key macro event that could determine Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Right now, the Fed is preparing to hold its final monetary policy meeting of the year, which is critical to the future of the global economy.
The Fed is still expected to cut interest rates, even as the prolonged U.S. government shutdown limits access to critical data.
When will the Fed’s December interest rate decision be announced?
The Fed is scheduled to announce its December interest rate decision on December 10, 2025 at 10pm Turkish time.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to issue an oral statement at 10:30 p.m. regarding the decision.
In what direction are your expectations focused?
Following the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in U.S. history, moderate inflation and employment data have fueled expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
In money markets, there is an 87.6% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month, with rates expected to fall in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Only 12.4% expect the Fed to keep interest rates stable between 3.75% and 4.00%.
Fed officials are divided on the roadmap the bank should follow.
For now, Federal Reserve officials led by Director Michael Barr and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsby say the Fed needs to be cautious so as not to disrupt its fight against inflation, want to see more data and that it makes sense to keep interest rates steady. Conversely, some officials, including Fed Chairman Stephen Milan and New York Fed President John Williams, have expressed support for lowering rates, saying the current environment is favorable for lowering rates.
Chairman Powell’s statement is very important!
As expected, the Fed is expected to cut rates, but signals from policy statements and Chairman Powell’s remarks are expected to influence the direction of the market.
For now, Powell’s stance on inflation, growth, and interest rate cuts will guide the Bitcoin and crypto markets.
“The most likely scenario would be a hawkish rate cutting stance, with rates being lowered but with announcements and press conferences suggesting the Fed may be done cutting rates for now,” said Bill English, former Fed director of monetary policy.
Immediately after announcing the decision, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference to detail his outlook for monetary policy in 2026 and the reasoning behind the decision. Powell’s comments could send a far more important signal than the interest rate decision itself.
Chairman Powell said at a press conference in October that there were widely differing views within the committee, saying, “There is no certainty that there will be another rate cut at the December meeting, and it is highly unlikely.”
*This is not investment advice.
