Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a decline in capital inflows and a surge in speculative activity, which is a mirroring pattern observed near previous cycle peaks, according to Glassnode on August 20th Report.
BTC pulled back from nearly 9.2% to $112,900 with a substantially weaker capital inflow compared to previous 2024 breakouts at $124,400.
The realisation cap rose just 6% each month during the current rally, well below the 13% rate recorded during the first $100,000 breakout in late 2024.
The report noted that investors showed limited demand amid a decline in profit-earning activities from existing holders.
Volatility-adjusted net income/loss metrics show significantly lower sales pressures compared to major breakouts at the $70,000, $100,000 and the $122,000 peak in July.
The disparity suggests that even lighter sell-side pressures have not been able to maintain momentum.
Volatility in the leveraged drive market
The futures market showed prominent activity during Bitcoin’s recent price action. Open interest between Bitcoin contracts remains at a level that has risen to $67 billion.
The revision eliminated $2.3 billion in public interest, representing one of the 23 largest nominal declines on record.
Altcoin derivatives reached a new extreme, bringing overall interest to $60.2 billion across key tokens before dropping by $2.6 billion during weekend revisions.
The combined Altcoin liquidation peaked at $303 million a day, exceeding double the Bitcoin futures liquidation volume.
Ethereum’s permanent futures volume advantage reached an all-time high of 67%, indicating the most powerful structural change to Altcoin’s speculation on record. At the same time, open profit control rose to 43.3% against Bitcoin’s 56.7%, reaching the fourth-largest level in history.
Similarities to previous peaks appear
The report argued that current market timing is closely aligned with the previous Bull Cycle.
Both the 2015-2018 and 2018-2022 cycles reached an all-time high in about 2-3 months relative to the current cycle when measured from cycle low.
Bitcoin’s circular supply exceeds the positive one standard deviation band for 273 days, the second longest period recorded after 335 days of the 2015-2018 cycle.
Long-term holders have achieved profit volumes comparable to all previous cycles except 2016-2017, and historically demonstrated significant sales pressure from patient investors.
These metrics collectively suggest that the current cycle will operate at a historically later stage, but each cycle describes unique characteristics that prevent a guaranteed time pattern.
A combination of weaker demand, record-breaking leverage levels, and similarities between historical timing creates conditions reminiscent of previous cycle peaks, but market evolution can change the traditional four-year pattern.
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