Although IREN is down 47% from its 52-week high on Nov. 5 and is well below its mining and high-performance computing (HPC) peers, investment bank B. Riley said in a note on Monday that it maintains its investment opinion and $74 price target on the company.
Miners are down an average of about 25% over the same period, with GPU cloud names CoreWeave (CRWV) and Nebius (NBIS) down 31% and 25%, respectively, according to a report by analysts Nick Giles and Fedor Shabalin.
They framed IREN’s recent price movements as an emotion-driven reset in a volatile AI surrogate, rather than a collapse in fundamentals.
Shares fell 8.2% to $36.82 in early trading.
Analysts have warned of stock price volatility in recent weeks. IREN also moved sharply in the other direction, rising 47% between October 22nd and November 5th, compared to the HPC peer group’s gain of about 13% during the same period, CoreWeave fell 6% and Nebius rose 19%.
Analysts argued that this pattern shows that stock prices tend to overshoot in both directions, and that AI-driven drawdowns could provide an entry point for investors willing to endure volatility in the sector.
On the financial front, IREN faces a gap of about $2.7 billion between available capital and planned HPC capital spending of about $11.6 billion, including about $900 million for Prince George’s 23,000 GPUs. , $1.85 billion for 40,000 GPUs at Mackenzie and Canal Flats, and $8.8 billion for 76,000 GPUs in partnership with Microsoft at the Childress campus, analysts said.
Already scheduled capital is about $8.85 billion, according to the bank’s tally, including a $1.94 billion 20% upfront payment from Microsoft, an estimated $2.5 billion in financing for 76,000 GB300 GPUs related to the Microsoft deal, and about $1 billion in cash and equivalents.
The report also highlighted recent balance sheet movements, including approximately $2.3 billion in new convertible notes due in 2032 and 2033, in addition to issuances prior to 2029 and 2031.
The bank said the net proceeds of approximately $2.27 billion from the latest conversion agreement funded a $201 million cap call with an initial cap price of $82.24 per share and the repurchase of approximately $227.7 million of 2030 Notes and $316.6 million of 2029 Notes, for a total purchase price of approximately $1.63 billion, including interest. Additionally, the company’s direct offering of 39.7 million common shares at a price of $41.12 per share, which it registered on December 2, was completed on December 8, further strengthening the miner’s capital stack.
Overall, B. Riley characterizes IREN’s 47% decline as a result of weak AI sentiment in a highly cyclical part of the market, rather than a structural change in Microsoft-centric GPU builds. The bank said the recent decline gives investors an opportunity to accumulate IREN ahead of a return to enthusiasm for AI and continued progress in HPC expansion.
read more: Bitcoin mining profitability declines for fourth consecutive month in November: JP Morgan
