Bitcoin narrowly misses Boxing Day’s $95,000 record, triggering signal for immediate action

Every Boxing Day, I make the same cup of tea, look at the same price charts, and ask the same questions. “What story will Bitcoin tell this year?”

If you line up the December 26 closing prices from the beginning of the currency era to the present, you can see a pattern. This holiday reveals the mood that led us towards the end of the year.

Boxing Day Reflects Bitcoin Maturity and Market Sentiment

In the early 2010s, this series was small on paper, with Bitcoin closing at around $0.26 on Boxing Day.

Liquidity was thin, the market was more like a chat room than Wall Street, and every rally felt like a science experiment. By 2013, the experiment paid off.

The Chinese policy shock in early December set the tone, with hundreds of dollars worth of print printed on Boxing Day. This proved that rules and railroads are important at a stage when the market is still learning to come together.

The following year intentionally felt like winter. Mt Gox collapsed in February 2014, confidence was gone and by Christmas the tapes were worn out.

2015 began to recover, with the next halving just around the corner, and holiday closing prices inched higher. 2016 saw a decent year-end appreciation as the afterglow of the halving countered capital pressures from a weaker renminbi.

The chart finally looked like stairs instead of heartbeats.

Then came the boom of 2017 and taught everyone what euphoria looks like on a daily chart. Futures were on sale, leverage was being used all over the place, and by Christmas it was in the air.

The closing ceremony on Boxing Day was much better than usual. The lesson was simple. Bull markets are hot, and cold air feels cooler when you’re sweating.

In 2018, the opposite chapter was written. A hurt market, a slight rebound from the holiday season, and quiet trading where only those who tracked the cycle after the fact mattered. 2019 awaits new reasons for care with drift, range limitations, and technicals.

The reason has arrived in 2020. Institutions stepped in, PayPal opened its doors to millions of users, and the digital gold narrative fit into physical balance sheets.

There was turmoil around December 21, when a new coronavirus variant made headlines. Momentum prevailed anyway, and the Boxing Day print branched out into new territory.

By 2021, the macro narrative was at the helm. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has become hawkish, and interest rate hikes are on the horizon, and risk assets have felt it.

Although Bitcoin had a solid closing price this year, the mood around Christmas was not a happy one. Then in 2022, after FTX exploded in November, the floor collapsed.

The December 26th close was near cycle lows. Even if your calendar is asking for support, it will take time to rebuild trust.

Reconstruction finally appeared in 2023. Bitcoin ended the month at more than $40,000, feeling like Santa Rally, as traders got ahead of the idea of ​​a U.S. spot ETF and hopes of a rate cut crept in.

This makes 2024 a memorable year for the Boxing Day charts. The ETF is live, and the halving has reduced new supply, closing at about $95,714 on December 26th, the highest ever closing price on Boxing Day.

This year, the price for 2025 was even lower on this day, at about $88,500. Markets spent the fall digesting increased central bank rhetoric, the dollar held firm and risk budgets tightened well into the holiday period.

ETF flows continued to provide support. Macrotone chose the ceiling.

Boxing Day close reveals where Bitcoin sentiment settles year after year

Plotting the Boxing Day bar and drawing each year’s highest price line above it will give you a clearer picture. Holiday bars show you where your emotions got you. High prices tell you what the year was capable of.

In a bullish year, the bar is near the line. In a bearish year, the gap yawns.

In 2013 there was a gap in policy, in 2017 there was a gap in excess, and in 2022 there was a gap in trust. In 2024, we almost reached that line due to hard work throughout the year.

What does that mean about next Boxing Day? Seasonality is a myth unless money agrees. The key drivers are the same as those in the story above.

Monetary policy determines the weather. The creation and redemption of ETFs determines the flow. The two halves form the coastline. And the microstructure at the end of the year can turn ripples into waves.

If interest rates ease, net demand for the ETF is maintained, and miners continue to sell lightly, the bar could move higher towards the line. Inequality could widen again if growth slows, real yields rise or funds roll profits into thin holiday books.

Boxing Day is just a date. It feels like a milestone because it captures a year’s worth of hopes and habits in one print. The top print in the stack is 2024.

The rest of the story is how do we get to the next stage above this?