As April progresses, Bitcoin is experiencing renewed bullish momentum after surging to around $73,300 following a 9% price increase last week. Beneath these price movements, new on-chain and market structure data reveals deeper changes in liquidity dynamics.
OTC dominance in Bitcoin trading signals a potential supply shock.
In an April 11 QuickTake post, market analyst GugaOnChain shared recent data from the “Bitcoin: OTC vs. Exchange Dominance Share (24-Hour %)” indicator, showing that OTC transactions currently account for 82.26% of total settlement volume, putting the market firmly within the “institutional warning zone” (80-90%).
Of the total daily settlement volume of 706,000 BTC (equivalent to approximately $51.5 billion), only about 17.14% flowed through traditional centralized exchange (CEX) order books. This imbalance shows that public liquidity on exchanges is drying up and that large players are increasingly inclined to trade outside the market.
In light of these developments, GugaOnChain warns traders not to take short positions in the current environment. This is because the dominance of OTC accumulation suggests a potential supply shock. Therefore, a surge in spot demand can trigger a rapid and violent upward price movement that liquidates such bearish positions.
To verify that this OTC activity reflects real accumulation and not distribution, experienced analysts introduce additional data from the indicator “Bitcoin: Exchange Inflows – Spent Output Age Band”. The study found that only 94.68 BTC of coins older than 6 months were deposited on exchanges in the last 24 hours. Compared to the 706,000 BTC that moved across the network during the same period, this indicates that long-term holders are largely inactive and not selling at the current price strength.
Related Read: Analyst Predicts Ethereum Price Will Rise 400% to $8,000 in 6 Months, and There’s a Pattern Behind It
Coinbase dominates residual exchange flows.
Within the remaining 17.14% trading activity on centralized exchanges, GugaOnChain further illuminates capital distribution, strengthening its institutional influence. US exchange Coinbase is a decisive leader, accounting for 58.21% of total CEX flows. The company’s dominance is closely tied to its role as custodian for eight of the 11 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, making it a key gateway for institutional capital.
Binance follows with 22.13%, maintaining its position as the largest global exchange by trading volume, but its user base remains retail-focused. Meanwhile, Kraken is smaller but focuses on compliance and institutional customers, capturing 6.44% of flows. Together, this distribution highlights a market increasingly shaped by institutional players both on and off exchanges.
Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview
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