Bitcoin price confirmed a firm rejection from the important $94,000 pivot, changing momentum and raising the possibility of a move towards the next support at $78,000.
summary
- The rejection at $94,000 confirms the channel high as strong resistance.
- The market structure shows further lower highs, indicating continued bearish control.
- The next major downside target is set at $78,000 to $78,430, aligned with support on the higher time frame.
Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to break out of the key $94,000 resistance zone throughout this week and is entering a deeper correction. Several attempts to regain this level resulted in immediate declines, once again confirming a decisive rejection from the region that had repeatedly restrained upside.
With bullish momentum fading and market structure weakening, Bitcoin now looks poised to revisit lower support levels, with the $78,000 area emerging as the next major area of interest. Traders are watching closely to see if this rejection leads to a full return to the lower bound of the broader trading channel.
Important technical points for Bitcoin price
- Bitcoin confirms rejection from the $94,000 pivot, the high resistance zone of the major channel.
- Prices are still below key structural levels and forming further lows.
- The next major downside target lies around $78,000 to $78,430, aligned with support on the higher time frame.
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BTCUSDT (4H) chart, source: TradingView
Bitcoin spent much of the week testing the $94,000 resistance area, which was reinforced by multiple technical confluences. The strongest of these is the channel’s high resistance, a level that has shown consistent accuracy over past cycles. My previous touches had completely rejected me, and this time was no exception.
The price hit the top of the channel repeatedly before being pushed down sharply, indicating that the attempt to break the structure upwards failed once again. The move unfolded during a period of quiet deleveraging, with total open interest in Bitcoin futures indicating a reduction in speculative positions amid continued resistance.
With the rejection confirmed, Bitcoin began to fall towards the midpoint of the channel. This midpoint closely matches the previously established swing low and typically serves as the next technical checkpoint during corrective movements.
If the price breaks below this level, the next major target will be the high timeframe support near $78,430. The region has significant liquidity and has served as a structural anchor throughout market rotations to date.
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From a market structure perspective, the recent rejection can be viewed as another low within a broader bearish trend. The rally earlier this week now appears to have been a false recovery, or what is often referred to as a dead cat bounce.
Volume analysis also supports the bearish outlook. Buying activity was weak during the breakout attempt, but pressure on the sell side increased each time Bitcoin broke through the resistance zone. This imbalance is characteristic of failed rallies. Without strong buyer participation, the price will not be able to maintain its upside and will be vulnerable to deeper retracements.
Momentum indicators are also starting to change. Bitcoin is now returning to the center of its channel as the rejection firmly takes hold and downward pressure accelerates. If the bearish momentum continues to build, the chances of a test of the $78,000 area increase significantly.
A return to the $94,000 zone would be needed to counteract this bearish bias, but the current structure shows no immediate signs of such strength. Current market conditions are similar to early 2022, with similar weakening momentum and structural collapse increasing the risk of further declines.
What to expect from future price trends
Unless Bitcoin is able to regain the breakdown level on strong volume, the price is likely to continue declining towards the $78,000 support area. Sweeping through this area may result in a temporary pullback, but a sustained recovery will require a return to high resistance in the channel. Until that happens, the prevailing trend remains bearish.
Bitcoin is down 8.5% since the beginning of the year.
Source: CoinGecko
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