According to some analysts, on-chain indicators suggest that Bitcoin (BTC) may have bottomed in November 2025, but still has significant upside potential.
On-chain data provider Glassnode reported that key indicators indicate the formation of a temporary or cyclical bottom during the pullback period at the end of November.
According to Glassnode, a key measure of short-term investor behavior hit a historic low when Bitcoin fell to around $80,000 in late November last year. According to the dataset, on November 24th, the “Profit Supply/Loss Supply” ratio calculated for short-term holders (tokens held for less than 155 days) decreased to 0.013. This indicator has historically coincided with major market lows in 2011, 2015, 2018, and 2022.
During the same period, the supply of loss-making short-term holders surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX crash. In contrast, the supply of profitable holders remained at only around 30,000 BTC. This situation, combined with extreme pessimism, laid the foundations for the possibility of a strong reversal.
As 2026 began, Bitcoin was observed to recover to the $94,000 region. The increase rate since the beginning of the year was over 7%. This price relaxation reduced the short-term supply at the time of losses to 1.9 million BTC, but increased the supply at the time of profits to 850,000 BTC, giving a ratio of approximately 0.45.
Glassnode notes that when this indicator approaches 1 and exceeds 1, Bitcoin typically enters an extended bull market. Historical data shows that true peaks often occur when the ratio approaches 100.
*This is not investment advice.
