Bitcoin’s weekend decline was caused by a sudden explosion in tariff policy uncertainty, resulting in a loss of approximately $100 billion in cryptocurrency market value during the reporting period.
Over the past 24 hours, BTC price has fallen below $65,000, and with it, the entire crypto market has fallen as well. According to crypto slate data.
Notably, liquidation has amplified this movement. According to data from CoinGlass, more than $500 million in crypto positions were wiped out during the swing, with the largest single liquidation amount reported to be approximately $61.51 million on the HTX BTC-USDT pair.
These losses represent the kind of forced unwinding that could turn macro headlines into a rapid, self-reinforcing move in cryptocurrencies.
As a result, a rift appeared in the sentiment of the cryptocurrency market. The crypto fear and greed index has fallen to 5, labeled “extreme fear,” a level not seen since 2019, according to Alpharactal data.
Whether traders treat this as a contrarian signal or a warning sign, this was a perfect fit for the tape given the situation where investors are risk averse first and ask questions later.
Court ruling triggers a chain reaction that changes policy direction again
The immediate triggers for this market collapse were political and legal.
On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down broad tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Reuters subsequently reported that U.S. Customs and Border Protection announced at 12:01 a.m. EST on Tuesday, February 24, more than three days after the ruling, that it would stop collecting these IEEPA duties, but also provided no immediate guidance on refunds.
That alone would be enough to cause confusion. Instead, the White House moved quickly to replace the canceled tariffs with a new framework.
On February 20, President Donald Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, imposing a temporary import surcharge of 10% on ad valorem prices for 150 days starting February 24. This figure was later revised to 15%.
He wrote in Truth Social:
“As President of the United States, I will raise the 10% global tariff on countries that many of those countries (until I came along!) have “slipped” from the United States without retaliation for decades to the fully authorized and legally verified level of 15%. Over the next few short months, the Trump administration will decide on and issue new legally permissible tariffs. This will continue our extraordinarily successful tariff-making process. America is great again. ”
This order is important for cryptocurrencies, as tariff levels are not the only issue. It was the speed and unpredictability of change.
Markets had to process court rulings, agency delays, new regulatory workarounds, and subsequent rate hikes all in the same news cycle.
This is a volatile event for a market that trades around the clock and uses a lot of leverage.
The real macro contagion was uncertainty, not just tariffs.
The crypto market decline occurred within an already fragile macro environment.
FRED’s US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index hit 706.97 on February 19th, a sharp rise that shows how policy noise has quickly become a tradable macro factor.
Another FRED category, the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index, has already risen to 3,027.14433 in December 2025.
In other words, cryptocurrencies haven’t taken a hit from a benign baseline. The blow comes in an environment that was already poised for chaotic repricing.
There is also a second layer of shock: the fiscal and balance sheet overhang caused by court decisions.
The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that repealing IEEPA tariffs could result in up to $175 billion in refunds.
He also said that IEEPA’s receipts continue to be around $500 million per day based on the current rate structure.
These numbers are large enough to influence the Treasury’s cash flow assumptions, importers’ balance sheets, and thus the risk premiums investors demand for leveraged and circulating assets.
It is a direct channel to cryptocurrencies. When macro uncertainty increases, investors reduce leverage, reduce option risk, and focus on liquidity.
Cryptocurrencies feel that way quickly because they are often the first market where positioning is light enough to trim and liquid enough to exit.
On the other hand, talk of tariffs does not automatically lead to clean inflation relief.
US banking giant Goldman Sachs has reportedly advised consumers not to expect prices to fall quickly even after tariffs are lifted, as companies tend to raise prices faster than they cut them.
Goldman estimates that while the tariff pass-through boosted core PCE by about 0.7% through January, the additional effect for the rest of 2026 would be only about 0.1%.
This supports the idea that the key market variables here are uncertainty and margin pressure, not a new inflation spike per se.
Cross-asset signals in line with that interpretation. Reports on tariff reversals and replacements explain that BTC has fallen while the dollar has fallen and gold has risen.
This is a common pattern when investors move towards traditional defensive assets and treat cryptocurrencies as a risk instrument rather than a safe haven.
Continuity, not transparency, in trade policy sustains risk appetite under pressure
If the Supreme Court’s decision was supposed to calm the market, this one did the opposite.
According to Reuters, U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer said countries with existing trade agreements would not withdraw and the administration would maintain policy continuity while restructuring its trade strategy through other legal tools such as Section 301 and Section 232.
He also said President Trump raised interim tariffs to 15% due to the “urgency of the situation.”
Although this position helped maintain tariff policy, it did not reduce uncertainty.
The European Commission responded by demanding “full clarification” from the U.S. government and insisting that “a deal is a deal” after President Trump temporarily imposed 10% tariffs following a court injunction, then raised them to 15% the same day.
Reuters also noted that the EU’s comparative advantage appears to have narrowed, as countries without a deal could face the same 15% overall tax rate.
For the market, it’s a matter of a certain framework. Policy continuity exists, but policy clarity does not.
And when clarity is lacking, capital tends to shorten duration and reduce risk. That’s what crypto trading looked like over the weekend.
Bitcoin is now back to a level where positioning can accelerate the next move
In the crypto industry, the macroshock hit an already technologically sensitive market.
According to crypto slate Data shows that $65,000 is already a key support area for the top cryptocurrency, below which the decline could accelerate towards $60,000. However, if there is a recovery, the tone could change and lead assets could exceed $70,000.
Meanwhile, the market is seeing increased option hedging and downside protection concentrated around $60,000, a level that could become more important if spot prices decline again.
This setup explains why the weekend trends felt bigger than the headlines alone. Tariff uncertainty hit macro sentiment, forcing liquidations and accelerating the decline, with the market landing near levels where option positioning can begin to shape short-term price trends.
The next steps are therefore likely to depend less on one more tariff headline and more on whether the next 150 days make it easier to chart a policy path.
There could be a hard base case where temporary surcharges are set, repeated legal and administrative noise occurs, and cryptocurrencies get stuck in a wide and volatile range. Relief recovery is also possible if refund guidance improves and the market begins to believe there are real boundaries around the tariff system.
However, the risk scenario remains the one most closely watched by macro traders: a shift from temporary surcharge policies to broader, longer-term trade tensions with a deepening risk-off posture across assets.
When it comes to cryptocurrencies, the signal to watch is not just a single green candle. The question is whether policy volatility remains high and whether investors continue to treat digital assets as the first thing to cut when macro noise rises.
(Tag Translation)Bitcoin
